Election Odds
Senate, House, governor, mayor and primary races, priced by prediction markets. 1662 live markets, $10.3M traded in the last 24 hours.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
December 3157% ▲ 10
November 3071% ▲ 6
November 1589% ▲ 9
Polymarket $1.1M 24h · $49.3M vol
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot67% ▲ 5
Benjamin Netanyahu18% ▼ 3
Avigdor Lieberman7% ▼ 1
Polymarket $959K 24h · $89.8M vol
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Jon Ossoff26% —
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17% ▼ 1
Gavin Newsom11% ▼ 1
Polymarket $749K 24h · $1.3B vol
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance18% ▼ 1
Jon Ossoff18% ▼ 0
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
Polymarket $578K 24h · $736.1M vol
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen45% —
David Lisnard15%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14% ▲ 1
Polymarket $560K 24h · $168.1M vol
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance34% ▼ 2
Marco Rubio19% —
Ron DeSantis13% ▼ 1
Polymarket $501K 24h · $731.6M vol
NC-03 House winner? · NC-03
Raymond Smith Jr.86% ▲ 4
Greg Murphy15% ▼ 5
Kalshi $426K 24h · $3.4M vol
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola (D)99% ▲ 1
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)1% ▼ 0
Ann Diener<1%
Polymarket $376K 24h · $7.8M vol
Mississippi Senate winner? · In 2026
Scott Colom98% ▼ 1
Cindy Hyde-Smith1% ▲ 1
Kalshi $313K 24h · $15.3M vol
Alaska Senate winner? · In 2026
Democratic party97% ▲ 1
Republican party3% ▼ 1
Kalshi $234K 24h · $10.9M vol
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Gadi Eizenkot>99% ▲ 1
Benjamin Netanyahu<1% ▼ 1
Avigdor Lieberman<1% —
Polymarket $168K 24h · $1.2M vol
Next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly12% ▼ 5
Scott Jennings8% ▲ 4
Monica Crowley5% —
Polymarket $164K 24h · $598K vol
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
None98% —
AK1% —
Polymarket $162K 24h · $78.5M vol
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Scott Colom (D)99% —
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)1% —
Polymarket $162K 24h · $6.2M vol
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? · On Feb 1, 2027
Above 5299% —
Below 45<1% ▲ 1
52<1% —
Kalshi $122K 24h · $6.1M vol
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) · in 2026
Mary Peltola96% ▼ 1
Dan Sullivan3% —
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1% —
Kalshi $110K 24h · $1.2M vol
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami? · In 2026
Yes99% —
Kalshi $110K 24h · $1.6M vol
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Ulf Kristersson51% ▲ 6
Magdalena Andersson44% ▼ 3
Ebba Busch<1% —
Polymarket $110K 24h · $11.5M vol
Lima Mayoral Election Winner
Rafael López Aliaga10% ▲ 9
Francis James Allison Oyague4% ▲ 2
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca<1%
Polymarket $104K 24h · $716K vol
New Zealand legislative election winner?
National Party98% ▼ 0
Labour Party2% ▲ 1
Green Party<1%
Polymarket $102K 24h · $796K vol
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · Before Oct 27, 2027
Gadi Eizenkot60% ▲ 6
No one34% ▼ 5
Benjamin Netanyahu8% ▲ 1
Kalshi $90.9K 24h · $1.9M vol
Next Senate Democratic Leader? · in 2028
Chuck Schumer91% ▲ 1
Chris Van Hollen6% ▲ 1
Elissa Slotkin3% ▲ 4
Kalshi $87.8K 24h · $332K vol
Next Senate Majority Leader?
Chuck Schumer92% ▲ 6
Chris Van Hollen4% ▼ 6
Brian Schatz3% ▼ 1
Polymarket $86.2K 24h · $373K vol
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an67% ▼ 2
Puma Shen34% ▲ 2
Kuo Hsi<1%
Polymarket $86.2K 24h · $4.1M vol
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?41% ▲ 8
Polymarket $76.8K 24h · $2.0M vol
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · In 2028
Jon Ossoff25% —
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14% ▲ 1
Gavin Newsom13% ▲ 1
Kalshi $73.8K 24h · $9.7M vol
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) · On Feb 1, 2027
5689% ▼ 6
579% ▲ 3
553% ▼ 2
Kalshi $68.8K 24h · $1.5M vol
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader? · In 2027
Chuck Schumer91% ▲ 6
Chris Van Hollen6% ▼ 6
Elissa Slotkin5% ▲ 8
Kalshi $66.9K 24h · $177K vol
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo90% ▲ 2
Pedro Sánchez10% ▼ 1
Santiago Abascal1%
Polymarket $65.9K 24h · $3.0M vol
2028 Republican presidential nominee · In 2028
J.D. Vance34% —
Marco Rubio21% —
Ron DeSantis17% ▼ 1
Kalshi $64.2K 24h · $4.8M vol
Kansas Governor winner? · In 2027
Cindy Holscher>99% —
Ty Masterson<1% —
Kalshi $54.4K 24h · $2.3M vol
Alaska House winner? · In 2026
Nick Begich III90% ▼ 5
Bill Hill10% ▲ 7
Eric Hafner<1% —
Kalshi $54.1K 24h · $285K vol
Will the House impeach Trump? · Before 2028
Before Jan 1, 20272% —
Before Feb 1, 20276% —
Before Mar 1, 202716% ▲ 5
Kalshi $48.3K 24h · $1.1M vol
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
December 31, 202661% ▲ 20
June 30, 202777% ▲ 14
March 31, 202778% ▲ 19
Polymarket $47.8K 24h · $367K vol
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? · On Feb 1, 2027
Below 19398% ▼ 1
Above 237<1% —
193-197<1% —
Kalshi $46.3K 24h · $1.7M vol
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Dejan Šoškić41% ▼ 5
Ivanka Popović33% ▲ 12
Ilija Srdanović10% ▼ 2
Polymarket $45.2K 24h · $4.4M vol
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
175-17969% ▼ 3
170-17431% ▲ 4
Below 170<1%
Polymarket $44.0K 24h · $103K vol
NC-03 House Election Winner
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)87% ▲ 7
Greg Murphy (R)12% ▼ 6
Polymarket $42.4K 24h · $1.3M vol
New Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Su Chiao-hui64% ▲ 3
Lee Shu-chuan36% ▼ 4
Huang Kuo-chang<1%
Polymarket $42.3K 24h · $313K vol
Michigan Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
El-Sayed, 1+ pts>99% —
El-Sayed, 1.5+ pts>99% —
El-Sayed, 2+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $40.8K 24h · $3.8M vol
Who will be the next Speaker of the House? · Before 2031
Hakeem Jeffries94% ▲ 4
Ro Khanna4% ▼ 2
Joe Neguse2% —
Kalshi $40.6K 24h · $351K vol
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · In 2028
Jon Ossoff23% ▲ 4
J.D. Vance14% ▲ 2
Marco Rubio11% ▼ 2
Kalshi $40.6K 24h · $4.9M vol
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Christopher Luxon85% ▲ 4
Chris Hipkins16% ▼ 2
Winston Peters<1%
Polymarket $36.2K 24h · $325K vol
Netanyahu out by...?
December 3145% ▲ 7
March 31, 202765% ▲ 7
June 30, 202768% ▲ 1
Polymarket $35.2K 24h · $125.3M vol
120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot? · Opening of the 120th Congress
Yes92% ▼ 1
Kalshi $34.4K 24h · $76.8K vol
Texas Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
James Talarico, 0.5+ pts>99% —
James Talarico, 1+ pts>99% —
James Talarico, 1.5+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $33.8K 24h · $6.8M vol
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Gavin Newsom8% ▼ 1
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2% —
Pete Buttigieg5% ▼ 12
Polymarket $32.2K 24h · $1.4M vol
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) · When the new Senate convenes in Jan 2027
At least 4699% —
At least 47>99% —
At least 48>99% —
Kalshi $30.2K 24h · $1.2M vol
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) · At the release of the national House popular vote data
Democrats, 14 to 16%79% ▼ 11
Democrats, 12 to 14%22% ▲ 11
Democrats, 16% and above2% ▼ 2
Kalshi $25.7K 24h · $704K vol
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 14-16%80% ▼ 9
Democrats 12-14%19% ▲ 12
Democrats 16%+1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $25.0K 24h · $453K vol
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? · On Feb 1, 2027
Above 24998% —
Below 210<1% —
214-217<1% —
Kalshi $23.9K 24h · $2.3M vol
Alaska Governor winner? · In 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins>99% —
Bernadette Wilson1% ▲ 1
Bill Walker<1% —
Kalshi $23.5K 24h · $491K vol
AK-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party91% ▼ 5
Bill Hill8% ▲ 4
Democratic Party<1%
Polymarket $22.1K 24h · $171K vol
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? · On Feb 1, 2027
Below 4595% ▲ 1
454% —
46<1% —
Kalshi $21.8K 24h · $2.6M vol
Trump out as President before 2027?
Trump out as President before 2027?3% —
Polymarket $21.4K 24h · $14.3M vol
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
December 313% —
Polymarket $19.7K 24h · $654K vol
Spain General Election Winner
PP90% ▼ 2
PSOE11% ▲ 3
Vox<1% —
Polymarket $19.5K 24h · $349K vol
CA-23 House Election Winner
Jay Obernolte (R)98% ▲ 2
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)2% ▼ 1
Polymarket $19.4K 24h · $280K vol
Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Hakeem Jeffries91% ▼ 2
Katherine Clark4% ▲ 1
Pete Aguilar3%
Polymarket $19.3K 24h · $68.5K vol
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028) · In 2028
Democratic party68% ▼ 2
Republican party31% ▼ 2
Kalshi $18.5K 24h · $37.4K vol
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?1% ▲ 1
Polymarket $18.4K 24h · $5.1M vol
Next Israeli government formed by...?
November 30, 202616% ▼ 4
December 31, 202645% ▼ 5
February 28, 202766% ▲ 1
Polymarket $18.0K 24h · $218K vol
Florida Governor margin of victory · Florida Governor
Donalds, 0.5+ pts>99% —
Donalds, 0.9+ pts99% —
Donalds, 1+ pts96% —
Kalshi $17.0K 24h · $339K vol
AZ-08 House winner? (2028) · AZ-08
Republican party91% ▲ 91
Democratic party9% —
Kalshi $15.5K 24h · $15.5K vol
Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
National + ACT + NZF72% ▲ 6
Labour + Green21% ▲ 6
Labour + Green + Maori4% ▼ 7
Polymarket $14.1K 24h · $173K vol
2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) · In 2028
Democratic party67% ▲ 1
Republican party35% ▼ 1
Kalshi $14.1K 24h · $402K vol
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · For the 2028 election
Cory Booker81% ▲ 2
Hunter Biden12% ▲ 3
Gavin Newsom84% ▼ 3
Kalshi $13.8K 24h · $694K vol
Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)48% ▲ 2
Sweden Democrats (SD)9% ▲ 5
Moderate Party (M)54% ▲ 7
Polymarket $13.8K 24h · $349K vol
NC-05 House winner? · NC-05
Chuck Hubbard98% ▲ 1
Virginia Foxx2% ▼ 1
Kalshi $13.4K 24h · $295K vol
Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
No second mandate55% ▲ 17
Benjamin Netanyahu44% ▲ 3
Yair Golan1% ▼ 5
Polymarket $13.2K 24h · $16.0K vol
CO-04 House winner? · CO-04
Eileen Laubacher>99% ▲ 2
Lauren Boebert<1% ▼ 2
Kalshi $13.1K 24h · $513K vol
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
Labour Party98% ▲ 2
National Party1% ▼ 1
Green Party<1%
Polymarket $12.9K 24h · $99.3K vol
Next Israeli government # of seats?
<5863% ▲ 11
61-6319% ▲ 7
64-667% ▼ 4
Polymarket $12.4K 24h · $29.9K vol
Texas presidential election winner? · Texas
Republican party62% ▼ 13
Democratic party41% ▲ 8
Kalshi $11.3K 24h · $11.5K vol
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
Gavin Newsom82% ▼ 3
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez65% ▲ 5
Pete Buttigieg96% ▼ 1
Polymarket $11.2K 24h · $224K vol
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic68%
Republican33%
Polymarket $11.1K 24h · $2.7M vol
Georgia Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Ossoff, 2+ pts>99% —
Ossoff, 3+ pts>99% —
Ossoff, 4+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $11.1K 24h · $1.5M vol
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Marine Le Pen90% ▲ 1
Jordan Bardella10% —
Éric Zemmour70%
Polymarket $10.9K 24h · $672K vol
Oscar nominees: Best Picture · In 2027
The Odyssey99% —
Digger25% ▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine92% —
Kalshi $10.9K 24h · $783K vol
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
40-4499% ▲ 9
35-39<1% ▼ 9
30-34<1% ▲ 1
Polymarket $10.9K 24h · $67.5K vol
2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
Other (including Ossof)70% ▲ 9
JD Vance23% ▼ 10
Marco Rubio5% ▲ 1
Polymarket $10.3K 24h · $111K vol
New Zealand general election winner? · in 2026
National37% ▼ 61
Labour6% ▲ 2
Opportunity<1% —
Kalshi $10.3K 24h · $15.5K vol
WA-04 House winner? (2028) · WA-04
Republican party89% ▼ 7
Democratic party9% —
Kalshi $10.1K 24h · $11.1K vol
FL-27 House Election Winner
María Elvira Salazar (R)98% ▼ 1
Eliott Rodriguez (D)2% ▲ 1
Polymarket $10.1K 24h · $189K vol
WI-05 House winner? (2028) · WI-05
Republican party85% ▲ 87
Democratic party13% ▲ 11
Kalshi $9.8K 24h · $9.8K vol
WA-05 House winner? · WA-05
Michael Baumgartner99% ▼ 1
Carmela Conroy<1% ▼ 0
Kalshi $9.7K 24h · $265K vol
2028 Presidential Election: Michigan Winner
Democratic Party70% ▲ 6
Republican Party32% ▼ 1
Polymarket $9.6K 24h · $10.0K vol
AZ-09 House winner? (2028) · AZ-09
Republican party51% ▲ 82
Democratic party3% ▲ 3
Kalshi $9.5K 24h · $9.5K vol
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit __ by March 31?
↑ 80%8%
↑ 75%27% ▼ 1
↓ 55%13%
Polymarket $9.3K 24h · $28.5K vol
Government shutdown by...?
December 1240% ▲ 8
December 3142% ▲ 3
Polymarket $9.0K 24h · $43.4K vol
CA-23 House winner? · CA-23
Jay Obernolte98% —
Tessa Lynn Hodge2% ▼ 2
Kalshi $8.9K 24h · $125K vol
NY-20 House winner? (2028) · NY-20
Democratic party92% ▲ 90
Republican party5% ▲ 6
Kalshi $8.9K 24h · $8.9K vol
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
4498% —
451% —
46<1%
Polymarket $8.9K 24h · $977K vol
Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) · On Feb 1, 2029
Above 5663% ▲ 7
5616% ▼ 6
556% ▼ 1
Kalshi $8.8K 24h · $53.3K vol
FL-12 House winner? (2028) · FL-12
Republican party81% ▲ 81
Democratic party13% —
Kalshi $8.8K 24h · $8.8K vol
How many Texas counties will James Talarico win in 2026? · Nov 3, 2026 Senate general election
At least 20>99% —
At least 22>99% —
At least 24>99% —
Kalshi $8.7K 24h · $26.3K vol
NC-05 House Election Winner
Chuck Hubbard (D)98% ▲ 1
Virginia Foxx (R)1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $8.5K 24h · $139K vol
MI-01 House winner? (2028) · MI-01
Republican party92% ▲ 90
Democratic party9% ▲ 10
Kalshi $8.5K 24h · $8.5K vol
AZ-02 House winner? · In 2026
Eli Crane99% ▲ 1
Jonathan Nez<1% ▼ 1
Kalshi $8.3K 24h · $794K vol
IL-06 House winner? (2028) · IL-06
Democratic party89% ▲ 95
Republican party4% ▲ 4
Kalshi $8.2K 24h · $8.2K vol
Mississippi Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Colom, 0.1+ pts98% ▼ 3
Colom, 0.2+ pts95% ▼ 3
Colom, 0.3+ pts95% ▼ 5
Kalshi $8.2K 24h · $112K vol
Alaska Governor winner? (Party) · In 2026
Democratic party99% —
Republican party1% ▼ 1
Kalshi $8.0K 24h · $359K vol
How many Israeli elections before government formed?
165% ▼ 1
232% ▲ 8
35%
Polymarket $7.9K 24h · $286K vol
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems65% ▲ 3
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems14% ▼ 4
Lula, Bennett, Dems<1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $7.9K 24h · $565K vol
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Green Party99% ▲ 1
ACT New Zealand1% ▼ 1
New Zealand First Party<1% —
Polymarket $7.8K 24h · $76.1K vol
Spain General Election: Broad Front (FA) # of seats?
9-1144% ▲ 2
12-1419% ▼ 10
18+8% ▼ 2
Polymarket $7.6K 24h · $19.1K vol
FL-18 House winner? (2028) · FL-18
Republican party80% ▲ 84
Democratic party18% ▲ 14
Kalshi $7.5K 24h · $7.5K vol
Ohio Governor margin of victory · Ohio Governor
Acton, 1+ pts>99% —
Acton, 2+ pts97% ▼ 5
Acton, 3+ pts98% ▼ 1
Kalshi $7.5K 24h · $402K vol
Next French presidential election winner? · In 2027
Marine Le Pen48% ▲ 1
David Lisnard16% ▼ 1
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14% ▲ 2
Kalshi $7.4K 24h · $242K vol
Midterms: Blue trickle? · In 2026
Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate?99% ▲ 1
Kalshi $7.4K 24h · $246K vol
California Governor election: Xavier Becerra vote percent · Vote Percent - Xavier Becerra
At least 54%>99% —
At least 56%>99% —
At least 58%97% —
Kalshi $7.2K 24h · $37.6K vol
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?
↑ 25%8%
↑ 20%17%
↓ 10%37%
Polymarket $7.2K 24h · $15.8K vol
National Guard deployed to election sites by...?
November 151%
November 303% ▼ 2
December 312% ▼ 4
Polymarket $7.0K 24h · $15.1K vol
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei45%
Axel Kicillof35%
Sergio Massa16% —
Polymarket $7.0K 24h · $1.3M vol
South Dakota Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Rounds, 3+ pts>99% —
Rounds, 5+ pts>99% —
Rounds, 7+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $6.9K 24h · $204K vol
How many nominees will the Senate confirm in the lame duck? · After Issuance, before Jan 3, 2027
At least 1096% ▼ 1
At least 2594% ▲ 8
At least 5082% ▲ 6
Kalshi $6.7K 24h · $24.5K vol
MA-09 House winner? (2028) · MA-09
Democratic party93% ▲ 91
Republican party7% ▲ 8
Kalshi $6.7K 24h · $6.7K vol
Alaska Governor margin of victory · Alaska Governor
Democrats, 2+ pts97% ▲ 8
Democrats, 5+ pts>99% —
Democrats, 8+ pts70% —
Kalshi $6.7K 24h · $20.5K vol
French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Jean-Luc Mélenchon51% ▲ 5
David Lisnard19% ▼ 1
Édouard Philippe17% ▼ 0
Polymarket $6.7K 24h · $98.3K vol
Ohio Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Brown, 1+ pts99% ▲ 2
Brown, 2+ pts99% ▼ 1
Brown, 3+ pts98% —
Kalshi $6.6K 24h · $401K vol
CA-04 House winner? · In 2026
Eric Jones89% ▼ 8
Mike Thompson7% ▲ 3
Kalshi $6.4K 24h · $149K vol
GA-10 House winner? (2028) · GA-10
Republican party92% ▲ 90
Democratic party9% ▲ 7
Kalshi $6.4K 24h · $6.4K vol
KS-04 House winner? (2028) · KS-04
Republican party96% ▲ 96
Democratic party15% ▲ 15
Kalshi $6.3K 24h · $6.3K vol
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House? · In 2027
Hakeem Jeffries93% ▲ 2
Katherine Clark2% ▲ 3
Pete Aguilar2% ▼ 1
Kalshi $6.3K 24h · $49.8K vol
KY-03 House winner? (2028) · KY-03
Democratic party93% ▲ 91
Republican party7% ▲ 9
Kalshi $6.2K 24h · $6.2K vol
French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
Gabriel Attal21% ▲ 5
David Lisnard20% ▼ 5
Raphaël Glucksmann19% ▼ 12
Polymarket $6.1K 24h · $6.3K vol
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
December 31, 202618% ▲ 4
January 15, 202753% ▲ 1
January 31, 202777% ▼ 7
Polymarket $6.1K 24h · $1.0M vol
Which party will win Latino men in the midterms?
Democrats>99% —
Republicans<1% —
Polymarket $6.0K 24h · $25.4K vol
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Labour 0-5%95% ▲ 8
National 0-5%6% ▼ 8
Labour 15%+<1%
Polymarket $5.9K 24h · $60.9K vol
AZ-05 House winner? (2028) · AZ-05
Republican party86% ▲ 89
Democratic party12% —
Kalshi $5.9K 24h · $5.9K vol
Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
Pete Hegseth65% ▲ 23
Nobody16% ▼ 9
Donald Trump6% ▼ 13
Polymarket $5.8K 24h · $42.8K vol
MA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 20-25%98% ▲ 1
Democrat 25-30%2% ▼ 1
Democrat 10-15%1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $5.7K 24h · $25.1K vol
Taipei mayoral election winner? · In 2026
Chiang Wan-an66% ▼ 2
Shen Bo-yang35% ▲ 2
Kuo Hsi<1% —
Kalshi $5.7K 24h · $357K vol
New Zealand Election: Turnout
<76%84% ▲ 82
76-78%11% ▼ 13
78-80%2% ▼ 30
Polymarket $5.7K 24h · $43.4K vol
IN-02 House winner? (2028) · IN-02
Republican party90% ▲ 92
Democratic party7% ▲ 9
Kalshi $5.6K 24h · $5.6K vol
2028 U.S. Senate winner? · In 2028
Democratic party89% ▼ 1
Republican party12% ▼ 1
Kalshi $5.5K 24h · $125K vol
NJ-06 House winner? (2028) · NJ-06
Democratic party94% ▲ 94
Republican party4% ▲ 7
Kalshi $5.5K 24h · $5.5K vol
PA-11 House winner? (2028) · PA-11
Republican party92% ▲ 90
Democratic party6% ▲ 6
Kalshi $5.5K 24h · $5.5K vol
Which party will win young men in the midterms?
Democrats>99% —
Republicans<1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $5.5K 24h · $18.6K vol
Next US president's age at inauguration?
50+34% ▼ 7
60+20% ▲ 4
70+14% ▲ 1
Polymarket $5.4K 24h · $11.0K vol
NYC Mayor # posts November 10 - November 17, 2026?
20-3992% ▲ 23
40-596% ▼ 17
<203% ▼ 22
Polymarket $5.4K 24h · $5.4K vol
FL-03 House winner? (2028) · FL-03
Republican party92% ▲ 91
Democratic party6% —
Kalshi $5.4K 24h · $5.4K vol
FL-27 House winner? · FL-27
Maria Elvira Salazar98% ▲ 1
Eliott Rodriguez3% ▼ 1
Kalshi $5.3K 24h · $234K vol
Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? · On Nov 3, 2026
Talarico by 0-596% ▲ 76
Raman by 10-153% —
Raman by 0-53% ▼ 14
Kalshi $5.3K 24h · $8.0K vol
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Likud21% ▲ 2
Shas33% ▲ 9
United Torah Judaism41% ▼ 14
Polymarket $5.3K 24h · $365K vol
MO-03 House winner? (2028) · MO-03
Republican party80% ▲ 80
Democratic party20% ▲ 20
Kalshi $5.2K 24h · $5.2K vol
FL-02 House winner? (2028) · FL-02
Republican party82% ▲ 81
Democratic party14% ▲ 10
Kalshi $5.1K 24h · $5.1K vol
SC-02 House winner? · SC-02
Joe Wilson>99% —
Zyon Khalifa<1% ▼ 1
Kalshi $5.0K 24h · $128K vol
LA-02 House winner? (2028) · LA-02
Democratic party93% ▲ 97
Republican party2% ▲ 3
Kalshi $4.9K 24h · $4.9K vol
IL-17 House winner? (2028) · IL-17
Democratic party82% ▲ 82
Republican party14% ▲ 15
Kalshi $4.9K 24h · $4.9K vol
How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
255-25932% ▲ 1
250-25426% ▲ 2
245-24916% ▼ 1
Polymarket $4.9K 24h · $16.3K vol
Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
M + KD + L + C51% ▲ 10
S + MP + C + V18% ▼ 0
S + MP + C9% ▼ 1
Polymarket $4.8K 24h · $236K vol
Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote? · in the 2028 U.S. presidential election
At least 1%96% ▲ 95
At least 1.5%89% ▲ 92
At least 2%0% —
Kalshi $4.8K 24h · $4.8K vol
Will Trump be impeached by...?
December 31, 20261% —
December 31, 202756% ▼ 1
June 30, 202737% ▼ 0
Polymarket $4.7K 24h · $1.2M vol
KY-04 House winner? (2028) · KY-04
Republican party93% ▲ 93
Democratic party4% ▲ 4
Kalshi $4.6K 24h · $4.6K vol
NY-06 House winner? (2028) · NY-06
Democratic party95% ▼ 3
Republican party4% —
Kalshi $4.5K 24h · $5.2K vol
Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Dec 31, 2026
Edmundo González1% —
María Corina Machado1% —
Donald Trump1% —
Kalshi $4.5K 24h · $1.3M vol
AL-05 House winner? (2028) · AL-05
Republican party93% ▲ 92
Democratic party7% ▲ 7
Kalshi $4.4K 24h · $4.4K vol
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?35% ▼ 10
Polymarket $4.4K 24h · $10.4K vol
North Carolina State Senate winner? · North Carolina State Senate
Republican party94% ▲ 1
Democratic party2% —
Kalshi $4.4K 24h · $49.5K vol
TX-06 House winner? (2028) · TX-06
Republican party92% ▲ 90
Democratic party8% ▲ 7
Kalshi $4.3K 24h · $4.3K vol
Alaska Senate election margin of victory · On Nov 3, 2026
Mary Peltola, 3-6%66% ▲ 7
Mary Peltola, 0-3%28% ▼ 13
Mary Peltola, 6-9%5% ▲ 4
Kalshi $4.3K 24h · $38.2K vol
IL-13 House winner? (2028) · IL-13
Democratic party93% ▲ 97
Republican party7% ▲ 6
Kalshi $4.2K 24h · $4.2K vol
Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner
Zoran Janković60% ▲ 3
Luka Mesec39% ▼ 2
Anton Rop<1%
Polymarket $4.2K 24h · $257K vol
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · For the 2028 election
J.D. Vance73% ▼ 8
Donald J. Trump12% —
Donald J. Trump Jr.22% —
Kalshi $4.2K 24h · $292K vol
IL-12 House winner? (2028) · IL-12
Republican party92% ▲ 90
Democratic party7% ▲ 7
Kalshi $4.2K 24h · $4.2K vol
LA-03 House winner? (2028) · LA-03
Republican party93% ▲ 97
Democratic party7% ▲ 10
Kalshi $4.2K 24h · $4.2K vol
California Governor margin of victory · California Governor
Democrats, 9+ pts>99% —
Democrats, 12+ pts>99% —
Democrats, 15+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $4.1K 24h · $134K vol
Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Before 2027
Before Nov 14, 202673% ▲ 3
Before Nov 21, 202680% ▼ 4
Before Jan 1, 202789% ▲ 1
Kalshi $4.1K 24h · $56.6K vol
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?32% ▼ 0
Polymarket $4.1K 24h · $6.9K vol
CT-02 House winner? (2028) · CT-02
Democratic party95% ▲ 94
Republican party5% —
Kalshi $4.1K 24h · $4.1K vol
WI-07 House winner? (2028) · WI-07
Republican party88% ▲ 90
Democratic party8% ▲ 10
Kalshi $4.1K 24h · $4.1K vol
Texas Governor margin of victory · Texas Governor
Hinojosa, 1+ pts>99% —
Hinojosa, 2+ pts>99% ▼ 1
Hinojosa, 3+ pts>99% ▼ 1
Kalshi $4.1K 24h · $649K vol
Who will be Chair of Senate Banking? · For the 120th Congress
Elizabeth Warren96% ▲ 2
Sherrod Brown3% —
Kalshi $4.1K 24h · $8.7K vol
NJ-04 House winner? (2028) · NJ-04
Republican party92% ▲ 92
Democratic party8% ▲ 8
Kalshi $4.0K 24h · $4.0K vol
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Yair Lapid37% ▼ 11
No Next Minister by Feb 2833% ▼ 2
Naftali Bennett10% ▲ 4
Polymarket $4.0K 24h · $217K vol
How many Republican-favored Senate races will Republicans win? · at the November 3, 2026 general election
At least 11>99% —
At least 12>99% —
All 132% —
Kalshi $4.0K 24h · $50.4K vol
Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner
Radomir Saičić74% ▼ 7
Vladan Đokić7%
Ana Brnabić1%
Polymarket $4.0K 24h · $460K vol
Georgia State House winner? · Georgia State House
Democratic party99% —
Republican party2% ▲ 2
Kalshi $4.0K 24h · $31.1K vol
IL-15 House winner? (2028) · IL-15
Republican party90% ▲ 92
Democratic party9% ▲ 6
Kalshi $3.9K 24h · $3.9K vol
CA-07 House winner? · In 2026
Doris Matsui98% ▼ 1
Mai Vang3% ▲ 1
Kalshi $3.9K 24h · $264K vol
Will the House pass a bill to restore ACA subsidies? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Yes94% ▲ 94
Kalshi $3.9K 24h · $3.9K vol
LA-04 House winner? (2028) · LA-04
Republican party92% ▲ 91
Democratic party7% ▲ 3
Kalshi $3.9K 24h · $3.9K vol
Riksdag approves Swedish Prime Minister by...?
November 30, 202645% ▼ 15
December 31, 202663% ▼ 4
February 28, 202780% ▲ 5
Polymarket $3.8K 24h · $4.7K vol
Closest Senate race in 2026? · Before Jan 3, 2027
Mississippi92% ▲ 1
Alaska6% ▲ 1
Kansas<1% —
Kalshi $3.8K 24h · $317K vol
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) · On Nov 3, 2026
No, ≥1%97% —
No, ≥4%75% ▲ 12
No, ≥7%26% ▲ 16
Kalshi $3.7K 24h · $37.6K vol
TX-17 House winner? (2028) · TX-17
Republican party93% ▲ 91
Democratic party6% ▲ 9
Kalshi $3.7K 24h · $3.7K vol
Minnesota Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Flanagan, 1+ pts>99% —
Flanagan, 2+ pts>99% —
Flanagan, 3+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $3.7K 24h · $475K vol
FL-26 House winner? · FL-26
Mario Díaz-Balart>99% —
Nicole Locklin<1% —
Kalshi $3.6K 24h · $334K vol
LA-05 House winner? (2028) · LA-05
Republican party95% ▲ 97
Democratic party5% ▲ 3
Kalshi $3.6K 24h · $3.6K vol
OK-01 House winner? (2028) · OK-01
Republican party91% ▲ 90
Democratic party6% ▲ 10
Kalshi $3.6K 24h · $3.6K vol
OH-08 House winner? (2028) · OH-08
Republican party87% ▲ 91
Democratic party13% ▲ 9
Kalshi $3.6K 24h · $3.6K vol
OR-06 House winner? (2028) · OR-06
Democratic party94% ▲ 94
Republican party3% —
Kalshi $3.5K 24h · $3.5K vol
White House # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?
200+54% ▲ 4
180-19923% ▲ 5
160-17916% ▲ 2
Polymarket $3.4K 24h · $11.1K vol
Will the House pass a Puerto Rico statehood or status bill? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Yes47% ▲ 21
Kalshi $3.4K 24h · $3.7K vol
Alaska State House winner? · Alaska State House
Democratic party89% ▲ 59
Republican party23% ▼ 10
Kalshi $3.4K 24h · $8.7K vol
IN-04 House winner? (2028) · IN-04
Republican party91% ▲ 91
Democratic party4% ▲ 4
Kalshi $3.4K 24h · $3.4K vol
Will the House pass a bill to codify Roe v. Wade? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Yes83% ▲ 17
Kalshi $3.4K 24h · $4.6K vol
NY-24 House winner? (2028) · NY-24
Republican party95% ▲ 92
Democratic party6% ▲ 6
Kalshi $3.4K 24h · $3.4K vol
RI-02 House winner? (2028) · RI-02
Democratic party94% ▲ 94
Republican party5% —
Kalshi $3.4K 24h · $3.4K vol
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
35-3998% ▲ 1
40-44<1% —
<30<1% —
Polymarket $3.4K 24h · $48.8K vol
NE-02 House winner? (2028) · NE-02
Democratic party89% ▲ 92
Republican party12% ▲ 13
Kalshi $3.3K 24h · $3.3K vol
Buttigieg's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?
↑ 10%8%
↑ 8%24% ▼ 0
↓ 4%31% ▼ 0
Polymarket $3.3K 24h · $16.4K vol
WI-06 House winner? (2028) · WI-06
Republican party86% ▲ 88
Democratic party14% ▲ 13
Kalshi $3.3K 24h · $3.3K vol
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?2% ▼ 2
Polymarket $3.3K 24h · $51.0K vol
FL-28 House winner? (2028) · FL-28
Republican party92% ▲ 90
Democratic party9% ▲ 10
Kalshi $3.3K 24h · $3.3K vol
TX-05 House winner? (2028) · TX-05
Republican party90% ▲ 94
Democratic party10% ▲ 11
Kalshi $3.2K 24h · $3.2K vol
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Kuomintang (KMT)74%
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)22% ▼ 4
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)<1%
Polymarket $3.2K 24h · $453K vol
TX-10 House winner? (2028) · TX-10
Republican party90% ▲ 95
Democratic party9% ▲ 10
Kalshi $3.2K 24h · $3.2K vol
Taichung Mayor Election Winner
Johnny Chiang77%
Ho Hsin-chun24% —
Yang Chiung-ying<1%
Polymarket $3.2K 24h · $91.4K vol
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
No Next Minister by Feb 2832% ▲ 3
Orit Farkash-Hacohen16%
Hili Tropper11% ▼ 3
Polymarket $3.1K 24h · $138K vol
NC-07 House winner? · NC-07
David Rouzer99% ▲ 1
Kim Hardy1% ▲ 1
Kalshi $3.1K 24h · $106K vol
New Zealand Prime Minister after the election? · Before Nov 7, 2027
Christopher Luxon82% ▼ 44
Chris Hipkins15% ▼ 12
David Seymour2% —
Kalshi $3.1K 24h · $11.8K vol
Which local officials will be recalled? · On Nov 3, 2026
Amanda Kimbel-Sparks8% ▲ 2
Bill Bean93% ▲ 98
Laurie DeShano94% ▲ 97
Kalshi $3.1K 24h · $3.1K vol
Balance of Power: 2028 Election
Democratic Trifecta54% ▼ 6
Republican Trifecta18% ▲ 3
R President, R Senate, D House17% ▲ 9
Polymarket $3.1K 24h · $4.9K vol
PA-06 House winner? (2028) · PA-06
Democratic party93% ▲ 94
Republican party6% ▲ 8
Kalshi $3.0K 24h · $3.0K vol
TX-03 House winner? (2028) · TX-03
Republican party91% ▲ 91
Democratic party8% ▲ 10
Kalshi $3.0K 24h · $3.0K vol
Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Ulf Kristersson52% ▲ 10
Magdalena Andersson45% —
No one5% ▼ 11
Kalshi $3.0K 24h · $117K vol
AOC announces a presidential run by...?
March 31, 202725%
June 30, 202741% ▼ 29
Polymarket $2.9K 24h · $4.4K vol
Paraguay Presidential Election Winner
Eduardo Nakayama23% ▲ 16
Basilio Núñez19% ▼ 3
Miguel Prieto14% ▼ 3
Polymarket $2.9K 24h · $14.7K vol
Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?
↑ 6%14% ▲ 3
↑ 5%43% ▲ 19
↓ 2%32% ▲ 6
Polymarket $2.9K 24h · $11.5K vol
Oklahoma Senate Election Margin of Victory
Republican 15-20%>99% ▲ 2
Republican 10-15%<1% ▼ 0
Democrat Wins<1% ▼ 2
Polymarket $2.9K 24h · $35.9K vol
Israeli Knesset election annulled?
Israeli Knesset election annulled?3% —
Polymarket $2.9K 24h · $157K vol
North Carolina Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Cooper, 1+ pts>99% —
Cooper, 2+ pts>99% —
Cooper, 3+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $2.8K 24h · $1.2M vol
White House # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?
180-19940% ▲ 8
160-17939% ▲ 11
200+10% ▼ 16
Polymarket $2.8K 24h · $21.0K vol
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
No Next Minister by Feb 2831% ▼ 1
Avigdor Lieberman19% ▲ 7
Naftali Bennett17% ▲ 2
Polymarket $2.8K 24h · $161K vol
Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory · Nevada's 2nd District
Thompson, 1+ pts95% ▼ 2
Thompson, 2+ pts98% —
Thompson, 5+ pts67% —
Kalshi $2.8K 24h · $14.0K vol
Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?
Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?96%
Polymarket $2.8K 24h · $13.8K vol
LA-01 House winner? (2028) · LA-01
Republican party95% ▲ 95
Democratic party3% ▲ 3
Kalshi $2.7K 24h · $2.7K vol
MA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 30-35%98% ▲ 1
Democrat 25-30%1% ▼ 0
Democrat 0-5%<1% —
Polymarket $2.6K 24h · $27.3K vol
Grammy Nominees: Best Pop Duo/Group Performance · Best Pop Duo/Group Performance | 69
Animal87% —
Bring Your Love87% —
The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)80% ▲ 12
Kalshi $2.6K 24h · $6.9K vol
PA-16 House winner? (2028) · PA-16
Republican party94% ▲ 92
Democratic party6% ▲ 5
Kalshi $2.6K 24h · $2.6K vol
FL-08 House winner? (2028) · FL-08
Republican party85% ▲ 86
Democratic party11% ▲ 14
Kalshi $2.6K 24h · $2.6K vol
MA-06 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30%98% ▲ 28
Democrat 40-45%1% —
Democrat 30-35%<1% —
Polymarket $2.6K 24h · $33.4K vol
New Taipei mayoral election winner? · November 28, 2026
Su Chiao-hui63% ▲ 2
Lee Shu-chuan36% ▼ 2
Kalshi $2.6K 24h · $54.6K vol
MA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 35-40%98% ▲ 49
Democrat 30-35%1% ▼ 2
Republican Wins1% ▼ 45
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $24.1K vol
VA-06 House winner? (2028) · VA-06
Republican party92% ▲ 92
Democratic party15% ▲ 15
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $2.5K vol
Spain General Election: Catalonia Winner
PSOE95% ▲ 3
ERC4% ▼ 1
Junts2% —
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $14.7K vol
Spain General Election: Asturias Winner
PP85% ▼ 6
PSOE14% ▲ 5
Broad Front (FA)<1% —
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $11.1K vol
LA-06 House winner? · LA-06
Blake Miguez92% —
Chauna Banks7% ▲ 1
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $77.4K vol
Alaska Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Democrats sweep97% ▲ 1
Democratic Governor, Republican Senator2% ▼ 3
Republican Governor, Democratic Senator1% —
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $47.5K vol
Maine Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Jackson, 0.5+ pts>99% —
Jackson, 1+ pts>99% —
Jackson, 1.5+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $662K vol
ME-02 House winner? · In 2026
Paul LePage>99% —
Matt Dunlap<1% —
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $401K vol
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4899% ▲ 7
46<1%
49+<1% ▼ 7
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $46.3K vol
Spain General Election: Biscay Winner
EH Bildu53% ▲ 11
PNV31%
PSOE20% ▼ 12
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $23.4K vol
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Naftali Bennett33% ▲ 8
No Next Minister by Feb 2828% ▼ 7
Avigdor Lieberman14% ▼ 5
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $210K vol
MS-02 House winner? (2028) · MS-02
Democratic party92% ▲ 90
Republican party8% ▲ 10
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $2.5K vol
Will the House pass a Medicaid work requirements repeal? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Yes84% ▲ 42
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $2.5K vol
AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30%97% ▲ 50
Democrat 20-25%3% —
Democrat 0-5%1% ▼ 2
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $22.3K vol
California Expedited Environmental Review Proposition
California Expedited Environmental Review Proposition<1% ▼ 4
Polymarket $2.4K 24h · $5.2K vol
Kansas Governor margin of victory · Kansas Governor
Holscher, 0.2+ pts>99% ▲ 100
Holscher, 0.4+ pts>99% ▲ 100
Holscher, 0.6+ pts>99% ▲ 100
Kalshi $2.4K 24h · $4.2K vol
MA-08 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 40-45%98% ▲ 1
Democrat 25-30%1% —
Democrat 35-40%1% —
Polymarket $2.4K 24h · $27.7K vol
Next President of Germany?
Ilse Aigner96% ▲ 3
Julia Klöckner2% ▼ 1
Karin Prien2% ▼ 1
Polymarket $2.4K 24h · $23.3K vol
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Helen Zille53% ▼ 0
Herman Mashaba23% ▲ 1
Lukhona Mnguni4%
Polymarket $2.4K 24h · $151K vol
AR-02 House winner? (2028) · AR-02
Republican party85% ▲ 87
Democratic party15% ▲ 17
Kalshi $2.3K 24h · $2.3K vol
Spain General Election: Vox % of vote?
18-20%45% ▼ 4
20-22%25% ▼ 0
16-18%21%
Polymarket $2.3K 24h · $17.6K vol
AR-03 House winner? (2028) · AR-03
Republican party93% ▲ 93
Democratic party12% ▲ 12
Kalshi $2.3K 24h · $2.3K vol
Delaware Senate Election: Turnout
375K-400K95% —
300K-325K<1% ▼ 1
425K-450K<1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $2.3K 24h · $31.1K vol
Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 30-35%60% ▼ 20
Democrat 25-30%36% ▲ 29
Democrat 0-5%2% —
Polymarket $2.2K 24h · $47.1K vol
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Texas<1%
Maine7%
Michigan<1% —
Polymarket $2.2K 24h · $217K vol
Alaska Senate and Governor Combo
Dems sweep98% —
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate1% —
Reps sweep<1% —
Polymarket $2.2K 24h · $119K vol
MN-01 House winner? · MN-01
Jake Johnson97% ▲ 3
Brad Finstad3% ▼ 2
Kalshi $2.2K 24h · $416K vol
FL-11 House winner? (2028) · FL-11
Republican party82% ▲ 91
Democratic party19% ▲ 15
Kalshi $2.2K 24h · $2.2K vol
Will the House pass a D.C. statehood bill? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Yes59% ▼ 2
Kalshi $2.2K 24h · $5.5K vol
IL-08 House winner? (2028) · IL-08
Democratic party95% ▲ 97
Republican party6% —
Kalshi $2.1K 24h · $2.1K vol
Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30%96% ▲ 41
Democrat 5-10%2% ▼ 0
Democrat 15-20%1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $2.1K 24h · $31.8K vol
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?50% ▼ 5
Polymarket $2.1K 24h · $24.2K vol
Michoacán Governor Election Winner
Carlos Torres Piña66% ▼ 2
Grecia Quiroz26% —
Alfonso Martínez Alcázar5% ▲ 2
Polymarket $2.1K 24h · $68.3K vol
South Carolina Senate: margin of victory · On Nov 3, 2026
Annie Andrews, 4-6%98% ▲ 3
Annie Andrews, 2-4%2% —
Darline Graham, 0-2%1% —
Kalshi $2.1K 24h · $20.9K vol
Spain General Election: Left-Right Seat Margin of Victory
Right 50-59 seats34% ▲ 13
Right 40-49 seats28% ▲ 11
Right 60-69 seats22% ▲ 7
Polymarket $2.0K 24h · $7.9K vol
NY-23 House winner? (2028) · NY-23
Republican party92% ▲ 96
Democratic party5% ▲ 8
Kalshi $2.0K 24h · $2.0K vol
NJ-11 House winner? (2028) · NJ-11
Democratic party89% —
Republican party9% —
Kalshi $2.0K 24h · $8.9K vol
Nevada Democratic Presidential Primary Winner 2028
Jon Ossoff27% ▼ 13
Jon Stewart25% ▼ 2
Ro Khanna22% ▼ 5
Polymarket $2.0K 24h · $2.2K vol
FL-10 House winner? (2028) · FL-10
Democratic party90% ▲ 93
Republican party2% ▲ 1
Kalshi $2.0K 24h · $2.0K vol
CA-46 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 35%+70% ▲ 20
Democrat 25-30%48% ▼ 2
Democrat 30-35%47% ▼ 4
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $2.0K vol
Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner
Wu Hsiu-hua83% ▲ 3
Chen Ying18%
Li Wu Ying-chih<1% ▼ 1
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $22.5K vol
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?10% ▲ 7
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $22.5K vol
NC-07 House Election Winner
David Rouzer (R)98% —
Kimberly Hardy (D)1% —
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $65.4K vol
Who will be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
Yair Lapid59% ▲ 18
Matan Kahana23% ▲ 6
Gadi Eisenkot23% ▲ 9
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $10.4K vol
Next Mayor of České Budějovice
Tomáš Chovanec91% ▲ 16
Viktor Lavička5% ▼ 9
Pavel Tůma4% ▼ 2
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $17.8K vol
Ossoff's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?
↓ 12%7% ▼ 5
↓ 10%7%
Polymarket $1.8K 24h · $20.8K vol
Next Senator in Klobuchar's Minnesota seat?
Kelly Morrison49% ▲ 20
Angie Craig19% ▲ 2
Steve Simon13% ▼ 23
Polymarket $1.8K 24h · $3.4K vol
LA-06 House winner? (2028) · LA-06
Republican party90% ▲ 88
Democratic party11% ▲ 12
Kalshi $1.8K 24h · $1.8K vol
Montana Senate margin of victory · In 2026
Alme, 1+ pts98% —
Alme, 5+ pts98% ▼ 4
Alme, 8+ pts97% —
Kalshi $1.8K 24h · $18.2K vol
Trump Jr.'s Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?
↑ 5%1% ▼ 3
↑ 4%3% ▲ 1
Polymarket $1.7K 24h · $7.9K vol
NZ Election: Opportunity Party # of seats?
7-997% ▲ 3
<44% ▲ 1
4-6<1% ▼ 3
Polymarket $1.7K 24h · $15.8K vol
Idaho Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Risch, 3+ pts>99% —
Risch, 5+ pts>99% —
Risch, 7+ pts>99% —
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $52.0K vol
TX-12 House winner? (2028) · TX-12
Republican party93% ▲ 95
Democratic party7% ▲ 5
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $1.7K vol
TX-36 House winner? (2028) · TX-36
Republican party93% ▲ 96
Democratic party7% ▲ 4
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $1.7K vol
Spain General Election: Zaragoza Winner
PP93% ▲ 4
PSOE5% ▼ 2
Vox2%
Polymarket $1.7K 24h · $7.4K vol
Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?92% ▼ 1
Polymarket $1.7K 24h · $28.6K vol
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman) · On Nov 3, 2026
Nithya Raman, ≥2%99% —
Nithya Raman, ≥4%99% —
Nithya Raman, ≥6%98% ▲ 1
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $82.7K vol
Alaska Senate margin of victory · On November 3, 2026
Mary Peltola, 0.5+ pts0% —
Mary Peltola, 1+ pts77% —
Mary Peltola, 1.5+ pts80% —
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $29.7K vol
Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner
Tsai Yi-yu96% ▲ 1
Wu Pin-jui4% ▼ 1
Tsai Sung-yi<1% —
Polymarket $1.7K 24h · $11.5K vol
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional) · On Feb 1, 2027
Above 211>99% —
Above 214>99% —
Above 21799% —
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $151K vol
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? · of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls
At least 21097% —
At least 21499% —
At least 21899% —
Kalshi $1.6K 24h · $247K vol
Which party will win white voters in the midterms?
Democrats>99%
Republicans<1% —
Polymarket $1.6K 24h · $85.0K vol
FL-21 House winner? (2028) · FL-21
Republican party92% ▲ 92
Democratic party18% ▲ 18
Kalshi $1.6K 24h · $1.6K vol
CA-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party98% ▼ 2
Republican Party<1%
Polymarket $1.6K 24h · $56.3K vol
Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner
Gintautas Kindurys75% ▲ 6
Vladislav Kondratovič13% ▲ 5
Mėta Palauskaitė7% ▲ 5
Polymarket $1.6K 24h · $17.0K vol
Showing the 300 most-traded of 1662 markets.
Recently resolved
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? · Before Jan 2029
Before Oct 20, 202694% ▼ 1
Before Oct 24, 202696% ▼ 3
Kalshi Resolved
Texas Senate: Exact outcome · Before Jan 2027
Talarico defeats Paxton>99% ▲ 26
Paxton defeats Talarico2% ▼ 26
Kalshi Resolved
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu100% ▲ 5
Mugur Isărescu0%
Polymarket Resolved
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
PSD100% ▲ 3
PNL0% —
Polymarket Resolved
Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
PSD100% ▲ 1
PNL0% ▼ 2
Polymarket Resolved
Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Independent/Technocrat100% ▲ 3
PSD0% ▼ 0
Polymarket Resolved
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken100% ▲ 1
Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds0% ▼ 1
Polymarket Resolved
Israeli legislative election winner? · In 2026
Likud>99% —
Yashar1% ▼ 1
Kalshi Resolved
Toronto mayoral election winner? · In 2026
Olivia Chow>99% —
Chris Alexander1% —
Kalshi Resolved
Ottawa mayoral election winner? · In 2026
Mark Sutcliffe>99% —
Alex Lawson1% —
Kalshi Resolved
Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? · On Oct 25, 2026
Amapá1% ▼ 64
Amazonas2% ▼ 20
Kalshi Resolved
Vancouver mayoral election winner? · In 2026
Pete Fry>99% —
William Azaroff1% —
Kalshi Resolved
Ohio Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win97% ▲ 28
Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win8% ▼ 7
Kalshi Resolved
New Hampshire Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win99% ▲ 16
Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win1% ▼ 15
Kalshi Resolved
Minnesota Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Amy Klobuchar and Peggy Flanagan win99% ▲ 5
Lisa Demuth and Michele Tafoya win3% ▲ 1
Kalshi Resolved
Michigan Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win99% ▲ 24
Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win4% ▼ 15
Kalshi Resolved
Maine Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson win99% ▲ 27
Hannah Pingree and Susan Collins win1% ▼ 27
Kalshi Resolved
Iowa Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Rob Sand and Josh Turek win99% ▲ 50
Zach Lahn and Josh Turek win5% ▲ 3
Kalshi Resolved
Georgia Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win99% ▲ 29
Keisha Lance Bottoms and Mike Collins win3% —
Kalshi Resolved
Georgia: Which elections will be won outright? · Nov 3, 2026
Senate99% —
Governor>99% ▲ 6
Kalshi Resolved
Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass? · In 2026
Yes98% ▲ 68
Kalshi Resolved
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? · On Nov 3, 2026
897% ▲ 3
72% ▲ 1
Kalshi Resolved
Texas Governor-Senate combo · Nov 3, 2026
Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win99% ▲ 62
Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win1% —
Kalshi Resolved
Maine-Texas Senate Combo · Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico and Troy Jackson99% ▲ 32
James Talarico and Susan Collins1% ▼ 13
Kalshi Resolved
LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo · Nov 3, 2026
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra99% ▲ 1
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra1% ▼ 1
Kalshi Resolved
Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax? · Iowa
Yes99% ▲ 24
Kalshi Resolved
Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado? · Colorado
Proposition 13299% ▲ 2
Amendment 812% —
Kalshi Resolved
Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas? · Arkansas
Citizens Only Voting Amendment99% ▲ 1
Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment99% ▲ 3
Kalshi Resolved
Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama? · Alabama
Amendment 198% —
Amendment 299% —
Kalshi Resolved
Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts? · Massachusetts
Question 199% —
Question 299% —
Kalshi Resolved