Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds
Polymarket traders give J.D. Vance a 34% chance (Kalshi: 34%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 34% | +192 | ▼ 2 | 34% |
| Marco Rubio | 19% | +421 | — | 21% |
| Ron DeSantis | 13% | +652 | ▼ 1 | 17% |
| John McEntee | 4% | +2339 | ▲ 1 | 4% |
| Tucker Carlson | 4% | +2640 | — | 3% |
| Thomas Massie | 3% | +3075 | — | 3% |
| Ted Cruz | 3% | +3674 | — | 2% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | +3982 | — | 3% |
| Brian Kemp | 2% | +5614 | — | 2% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1% | +6797 | — | — |
| Joe Kent | <1% | +10426 | — | <1% |
| Nikki Haley | <1% | +11665 | — | 1% |
| Byron Donalds | <1% | +11665 | — | <1% |
| Ivanka Trump | <1% | +13233 | — | <1% |
| Donald Trump | <1% | +15285 | — | — |
| Josh Hawley | <1% | +15285 | — | <1% |
| Rand Paul | <1% | +18082 | — | <1% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | <1% | +18082 | — | 1% |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | +19900 | — | <1% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | <1% | +28471 | — | <1% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | <1% | +28471 | — | <1% |
| Tim Scott | <1% | +28471 | — | <1% |
| Elon Musk | <1% | +39900 | — | <1% |
| Katie Britt | <1% | +39900 | — | <1% |
| Candace Owens | <1% | +39900 | — | <1% |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Elise Stefanik | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Kristi Noem | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Mike Pence | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Steve Bannon | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Kim Kardashian | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Eric Trump | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Rick Scott | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Matt Gaetz | <1% | +99900 | — | <1% |
| John Thune | <1% | +199900 | — | <1% |
Showing the top 40 of 43 outcomes.
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price J.D. Vance at 34%, about +192 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 34%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.