Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination Odds · For the 2028 election
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 73% | -264 | ▼ 8 |
| Donald J. Trump | 12% | +744 | — |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 22% | +365 | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 23% | +344 | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 91% | -1043 | ▼ 7 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 26% | +292 | ▼ 13 |
| Marco Rubio | 65% | -182 | — |
| Glenn Youngkin | 42% | +138 | ▲ 3 |
| Nikki Haley | 29% | +245 | ▲ 3 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 25% | +308 | — |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 31% | +228 | — |
| Greg Abbott | 15% | +590 | — |
| Elon Musk | 5% | +1861 | — |
| Brian Kemp | 47% | +113 | ▲ 10 |
| Matt Gaetz | 7% | +1261 | ▼ 17 |
| Byron Donalds | 12% | +747 | ▲ 4 |
| Elise Stefanik | 16% | +545 | — |
| Josh Hawley | 17% | +488 | ▼ 2 |
| Rand Paul | 66% | -190 | ▼ 4 |
| Ted Cruz | 89% | -770 | — |
| Katie Britt | 10% | +900 | — |
| John Thune | 7% | +1308 | ▼ 7 |
| Tucker Carlson | 22% | +365 | ▼ 1 |
| Steve Bannon | 22% | +365 | — |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 24% | +326 | ▲ 5 |
| Erika Kirk | 8% | +1216 | — |
| Pete Hegseth | 16% | +506 | ▼ 5 |
| Jared Kushner | 15% | +590 | ▲ 6 |
| Thomas Massie | 61% | -153 | ▼ 3 |
| Jeff Bezos | 9% | +1011 | — |
| Spencer Pratt | 19% | +441 | — |
| John McEntee | 88% | -700 | ▲ 6 |
| Gregory Bovino | 27% | +277 | — |
| Tim Scott | 34% | +199 | — |
| Larry Hogan | 14% | +641 | — |
| Chris Christie | 45% | +122 | ▼ 21 |
| John Kennedy | 20% | +413 | ▼ 6 |
| Doug Burgum | 26% | +292 | — |
| Joe Kent | 18% | +456 | — |
| Ivanka Trump | 11% | +852 | — |
Showing the top 40 of 42 outcomes.
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Price history
Resolution rules
If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.