New Zealand general election winner Odds · in 2026
Kalshi traders give National a 37% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 37% | +170 | ▼ 61 |
| Labour | 6% | +1526 | ▲ 2 |
| Opportunity | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Green | <1% | +22122 | — |
| ACT | <1% | +22122 | ▲ 1 |
| NZ First | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Te Pāti Māori | <1% | +22122 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the National party wins the next New Zealand general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in New Zealand general election winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price National at 37%, about +170 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on New Zealand general election winner?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.