Balance of Power: 2028 Election Odds

Polymarket traders give Democratic Trifecta a 54% chance.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party that wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, the party that wins control of the United States Senate, and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2028 United States general election. The party that wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is the party whose candidate is elected as President of the United States in that election. The winner of the presidential election will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date, the winner of the presidential election will be the person who is inaugurated. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and wins the Vice Presidency in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2028 general election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 121st Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2028 as of October 31, 2028 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2028 as of October 31, 2028 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2028 United States general election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 121st Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2028. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be the A

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