How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot Odds
Polymarket traders give 255-259 a 32% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 255-259 | 32% | +212 | ▲ 1 |
| 250-254 | 26% | +292 | ▲ 2 |
| 245-249 | 16% | +545 | ▼ 1 |
| 260-264 | 14% | +590 | ▼ 1 |
| 244 or fewer | 14% | +641 | ▲ 4 |
| 270-274 | 1% | +8596 | — |
| 275-279 | <1% | +28471 | — |
| 265-269 | <1% | +39900 | ▼ 1 |
| 280 or more | <1% | +66567 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House. A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 255-259 at 32%, about +212 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 4, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.