New Zealand Election: 2nd Place Odds
Polymarket traders give Labour Party a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 98% | -6150 | ▲ 1 |
| National Party | 1% | +7592 | ▼ 1 |
| Green Party | <1% | +199900 | — |
| ACT New Zealand | <1% | +199900 | — |
| New Zealand First Party | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Te Pāti Māori | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in New Zealand Election: 2nd Place?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Labour Party at 98%, about -6150 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on New Zealand Election: 2nd Place?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.