Alaska Senate Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Mary Peltola (D) a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 99% | -6797 | ▲ 1 |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) | 1% | +6797 | ▼ 1 |
| Ann Diener | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Dustin Darden | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Richard Grayson | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | <1% | +199900 | — |
| David Leslie | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Alaska Senate Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Mary Peltola (D) at 99%, about -6797 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Alaska Senate Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.