How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Odds · When the new Senate convenes in Jan 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| At least 47 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| At least 48 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| At least 49 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| At least 50 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| At least 51 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| At least 52 | 99% | -9900 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 53 | 99% | -9900 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 54 | 99% | -9900 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 55 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| At least 56 | 93% | -1233 | ▼ 3 |
| At least 57 | 6% | +1567 | ▲ 3 |
| At least 58 | 2% | +6567 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the Democratic Party holds at least 46 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 3, 2026, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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