Lima Mayoral Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Rafael López Aliaga a 9% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael López Aliaga | 9% | +981 | ▲ 8 |
| Francis James Allison Oyague | 4% | +2603 | ▲ 2 |
| Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca | <1% | +14186 | — |
| Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Sandro Caller Gutiérrez | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Jessica Viviana Linares Romero | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Rubén José Ramírez Mateo | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Flor de María Hurtado Valdez | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Samuel Marcos Daza Taype | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Segundo Valdez Zavala | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Yehude Simón Munaro | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Santiago Rosendo Abarca León | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Samir Frank Quispe Caballero | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Lima Mayoral Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Rafael López Aliaga at 9%, about +981 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 5, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Lima Mayoral Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.