Next Prime Minister of New Zealand Odds
Polymarket traders give Christopher Luxon a 85% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 85% | -545 | ▲ 2 |
| Chris Hipkins | 16% | +525 | ▼ 0 |
| Winston Peters | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Nicola Willis | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | <1% | +199900 | — |
| David Seymour | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Carmel Sepuloni | <1% | +199900 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Christopher Luxon at 85%, about -545 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.