Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give Pete Hegseth a 65% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 65% | -182 | ▲ 22 |
| Nobody | 16% | +545 | ▼ 9 |
| Donald Trump | 6% | +1567 | ▼ 13 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4% | +2717 | — |
| Howard Lutnick | 3% | +3233 | ▼ 1 |
| Clarence Thomas | <1% | +10426 | ▼ 1 |
| Todd Blanche | <1% | +13233 | ▼ 4 |
| Samuel Alito | <1% | +19900 | — |
| JD Vance | <1% | +39900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Pete Hegseth at 65%, about -182 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.