2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) Odds · In 2028
Kalshi traders give Democratic party a 67% chance (Polymarket: 68%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 67% | -199 | ▲ 1 | 68% |
| Republican party | 35% | +190 | ▼ 1 | 33% |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Democratic party at 67%, about -199 in American odds. On Polymarket the same outcome trades at 68%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 21, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.