Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Gintautas Kindurys a 75% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gintautas Kindurys | 75% | -300 | ▲ 6 |
| Vladislav Kondratovič | 14% | +614 | ▲ 6 |
| Mėta Palauskaitė | 7% | +1329 | ▲ 5 |
| Dalia Štraupaitė | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 0 |
| Antanas Šakalis | 4% | +2199 | ▼ 1 |
| Giedrius Dainys | 4% | +2310 | ▼ 1 |
| Nikolajus Lebedevičius | 4% | +2603 | — |
| Ignotas Adomavičius | 2% | +5961 | — |
| Viktor Voronin | 2% | +6567 | ▼ 0 |
| Andrej Šildiajėv | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Maksimas Paukštė | <1% | +22122 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Gintautas Kindurys at 75%, about -300 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.