AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82New Zealand general election winner: National 37% ▼ 61Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 92% ▲ 39College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 72% ▲ 24Will Pete Hegseth be impeached: Before Apr 1… 82% ▲ 23Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23"Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Off… 57% ▲ 22ATP Paris Winner: Carlos Alcaraz 78% ▲ 21Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 78% ▲ 20How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 44% ▲ 20Pete Hegseth impeached by...: December 31, 2… 62% ▲ 20NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 32% ▼ 18Who will receive the second mandate to form … 57% ▲ 18Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 84% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 73% ▲ 17Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” … 30% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Midterm 74% ▼ 16AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82New Zealand general election winner: National 37% ▼ 61Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 92% ▲ 39College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 72% ▲ 24Will Pete Hegseth be impeached: Before Apr 1… 82% ▲ 23Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23"Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Off… 57% ▲ 22ATP Paris Winner: Carlos Alcaraz 78% ▲ 21Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 78% ▲ 20How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 44% ▲ 20Pete Hegseth impeached by...: December 31, 2… 62% ▲ 20NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 32% ▼ 18Who will receive the second mandate to form … 57% ▲ 18Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 84% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 73% ▲ 17Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” … 30% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Midterm 74% ▼ 16

Kalshi vs Polymarket

The two biggest prediction markets, compared with live data instead of opinions. Updated Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST.

KalshiPolymarket
RegulationCFTC-regulated US exchangeInternational site (non-US); Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated app
Open to US usersYes (some states contest it)International site: no. Polymarket US: yes
Active markets we track2,6705,548
24h volume (tracked markets)$14.7M*$150.3M
Wallet-level trade dataNoYes (on-chain)
Contract payout$1 per contract$1 per share

* Kalshi reports volume in contracts; we estimate dollars as contracts × price.

Which is cheaper right now?

Across the 174 games and races listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket US, the price to buy differs by a median of 1 points after taker fees. Kalshi is cheaper on 45% of them, and 25 differ by more than 2 points. See every game on the odds board, updated every 10 minutes.

Fees

KalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (intl, sports)
Taker fee0.07 × C × p × (1 − p)0.0695 × C × p × (1 − p)0.05 × C × p × (1 − p)
Fee on 100 contracts at 50¢$1.75$1.74$1.25

C is the number of contracts and p the price. Kalshi rounds its fee up to the cent per order; maker orders and volume tiers can cost less. Check each venue's fee page before trading.

Where each venue's volume is

CategoryKalshi marketsKalshi 24hPolymarket marketsPolymarket 24h
Sports842$8.3M2612$131.3M
Elections665$3.1M997$7.2M
Politics202$1.3M649$4.7M
Crypto49$513K309$2.9M
Science79$128K263$2.0M
Economy448$639K343$1.1M
Culture281$539K197$870K
Tech87$92.0K175$308K
Other14$29.6K3$248
World3$750$0

Same question, both venues

The leading outcome on each venue, right now. A gap isn't free money: fees, spreads and different resolution rules usually explain it.

QuestionOutcomePolymarketKalshiGap
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Jon Ossoff 26% 25% 2 pts
Presidential Election Winner 2028 JD Vance 18% 14% 4 pts
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 J.D. Vance 34% 34% 1 pt
NC-03 House Election Winner Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 87% 86% 2 pts
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Scott Colom (D) 99% 98% 1 pt
Kansas Governor Election Winner Cindy Holscher (D) >99% >99% 0 pts
Worlds 2026: Finals MVP Chovy 25% 23% 2 pts
Alaska Governor Election Winner Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins >99% >99% 0 pts
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion (2026) Justin Allgaier 99% >99% 1 pt
CA-23 House Election Winner Jay Obernolte (R) 98% 97% 0 pts
NC-05 House Election Winner Chuck Hubbard (D) 98% 97% 1 pt
CO-04 House Election Winner Eileen Laubacher (D) >99% >99% 0 pts
NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion Kyle Larson 96% 96% 0 pts
Club Brugge vs. RSC Anderlecht Club Brugge 61% 62% 1 pt
NBA: 2026-27 MVP Luka Doncic 40% 41% 0 pts
Top Spotify Artist 2026 Bad Bunny 96% 97% 1 pt
WA-05 House Election Winner Michael Baumgartner (R) 98% 99% 1 pt
AZ-02 House Election Winner Eli Crane (R) 99% 99% 0 pts
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? 2% 5% 2 pts
#2 Spotify Artist 2026 Drake 93% 94% 0 pts
The Game Awards: Game of the Year Grand Theft Auto VI 87% 87% 0 pts
DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion Bayern Munich 46% 50% 4 pts
Argentina Presidential Election Winner Javier Milei 45% 47% 2 pts
NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year Cameron Boozer 32% 31% 1 pt
SC-02 House Election Winner Joe Wilson (R) 99% >99% 1 pt
FL-26 House Election Winner Mario Díaz-Balart (R) >99% >99% 0 pts
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Champion (2026) Kaden Honeycutt 99% >99% 1 pt
NC-07 House Election Winner David Rouzer (R) 98% 99% 1 pt
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? 1% 2% 0 pts
ME-02 House Election Winner Paul LePage (R) >99% >99% 0 pts
MN-01 House Election Winner Jake Johnson (D) 97% 97% 0 pts
UEFA Nations League Winner 2026-27 Spain 35% 37% 2 pts
2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick Drew Mestemaker 41% 42% 1 pt
NBA: 2026-27 Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard 32% 33% 1 pt
Liga MX: 2026 Apertura Champion Cruz Azul 24% 23% 1 pt
MotoGP World Champion (2026) Marc Marquez 96% 97% 1 pt
EPL: 2026-27 Top 2 Finishers Arsenal 91% 93% 2 pts
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026? Lindsay Clancy 33% 34% 1 pt
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026? Delcy Rodríguez 96% 98% 1 pt
Democratic VP Nominee 2028 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 21% 15% 5 pts

FAQ

Is Kalshi or Polymarket legal in the US?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange (a designated contract market) open to US users, though several states are challenging its sports and election contracts in court. Polymarket’s main international site blocks US users; Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated app for US customers with its own, smaller set of markets.

Which has better prices, Kalshi or Polymarket?

It depends on the market. Across the 40 questions we can match on both venues right now, the leading outcome’s price differs by 1 percentage points on average. Always compare the specific market, and read both venues’ resolution rules: small wording differences change what pays out.

Which has more markets?

Right now we track 2,670 active Kalshi events and 5,548 active Polymarket events that meet our minimum trading volume. Kalshi lists many small contracts (individual games, player props, local races); Polymarket concentrates volume in fewer, larger markets.

Can I see whale trades on both?

Only on Polymarket. Its trades settle on a public blockchain, so every trade has a wallet address. Kalshi publishes trades without account identifiers.

Sources