NZ Election: National Party # of seats Odds
Polymarket traders give 40-44 a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40-44 | 99% | -9424 | ▲ 4 |
| 35-39 | <1% | +10426 | ▼ 4 |
| 30-34 | <1% | +14186 | — |
| <25 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 25-29 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 45-49 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 50+ | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 40-44 at 99%, about -9424 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.