How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional) Odds · On Feb 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 211 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Above 214 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Above 217 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 220 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Above 223 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 226 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 229 | 99% | -9900 | ▼ 1 |
| Above 232 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Above 235 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 238 | 99% | -9900 | ▼ 1 |
| Above 241 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Above 244 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Above 247 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Above 250 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Above 253 | 97% | -3233 | ▼ 1 |
| Above 256 | 96% | -2400 | — |
| Above 259 | 84% | -525 | ▲ 8 |
| Above 262 | 12% | +770 | ▼ 4 |
| Above 265 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Above 268 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 271 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 274 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 277 | 1% | +9900 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the Democratic party has above 211 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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