Closest Senate race in 2026 Odds · Before Jan 3, 2027
Kalshi traders give Mississippi a 92% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 92% | -1076 | ▼ 2 |
| Alaska | 7% | +1438 | ▼ 1 |
| Kansas | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Florida | <1% | +19900 | — |
| South Carolina | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Montana | <1% | +19900 | — |
| South Dakota | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Idaho | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Arkansas | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Louisiana | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Minnesota | <1% | +99900 | — |
| New Hampshire | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Georgia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Michigan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| North Carolina | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Maine | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 1 |
| Iowa | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Texas | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ohio | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Nebraska | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Closest Senate race in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Mississippi at 92%, about -1076 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Closest Senate race in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.