Alaska Senate election margin of victory Odds · On Nov 3, 2026
Kalshi traders give Mary Peltola, 3-6% a 65% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, 3-6% | 65% | -186 | ▲ 7 |
| Mary Peltola, 0-3% | 28% | +257 | ▼ 13 |
| Mary Peltola, 6-9% | 5% | +1900 | ▲ 4 |
| Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 2 |
| Mary Peltola, 9-12% | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Mary Peltola, ≥12% | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Dan Sullivan, 3-6% | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Dan Sullivan, 6-9% | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Dan Sullivan, 9-12% | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Dan Sullivan, ≥12% | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Alaska Senate election margin of victory?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Mary Peltola, 3-6% at 65%, about -186 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jun 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Alaska Senate election margin of victory?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.