Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government Odds
Polymarket traders give Gadi Eizenkot a >99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | >99% | -28471 | ▲ 1 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | <1% | +99900 | ▼ 1 |
| Naftali Bennett | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Yair Lapid | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Benny Gantz | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Yossi Cohen | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Yair Golan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Gideon Sa’ar | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Yariv Levin | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Moshe Feiglin | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ayelet Shaked | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Yoaz Hendel | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Israel Katz | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Nir Barkat | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Amir Ohana | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Gilad Erdan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ofer Winter | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Gadi Eizenkot at >99%, about -28471 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 28, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.