Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 91% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | +953 | ▲ 7 |
| No | 91% | -953 | ▼ 7 |
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year"?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 91%, about -953 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.