Tech & AI Odds
AI models, product launches, big tech and space. 262 live markets, $400K traded in the last 24 hours.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 3197% ▲ 1
November 1974%
November 3087% ▲ 2
Polymarket $28.0K 24h · $1.4M vol
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
GTA 6 launch postponed again?1% —
Polymarket $23.9K 24h · $1.0M vol
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 202610% ▼ 2
December 31, 202756%
Polymarket $22.2K 24h · $1.2M vol
Gemini Carbon released on...?
November 1049% ▲ 6
November 1116% ▼ 4
November 97% ▲ 7
Polymarket $21.4K 24h · $216K vol
Gemini Carbon released by...?
November 3098% ▼ 1
December 3198%
November 1581%
Polymarket $20.6K 24h · $275K vol
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 3198% —
November 3089% ▲ 4
November 1558%
Polymarket $15.8K 24h · $926K vol
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?
Top 12% —
Top 52% ▼ 8
Top 1013% ▼ 4
Polymarket $14.8K 24h · $58.1K vol
Anthropic market share this week · Anthropic market share - Nov 2, 2026
Above 4.5%>99% —
Above 4.9%>99% —
Above 5.1%>99% —
Kalshi $12.5K 24h · $29.7K vol
Best AI at the end of 2026? · On Dec 31, 2026
Gemini61% ▼ 1
Claude31% ▲ 1
ChatGPT5% —
Kalshi $11.4K 24h · $3.3M vol
#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?
DeepSeek>99% ▲ 2
Tencent<1% ▼ 0
OpenAI<1% ▼ 0
Polymarket $9.4K 24h · $13.9K vol
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+? · Astra 6.1
Before Sep 25, 20261% —
Before Oct 2, 20261% —
Before Oct 9, 20261% —
Kalshi $8.2K 24h · $176K vol
When will Gemini Carbon be released?
November 9–November 1581%
November 16–November 2215% ▼ 1
November 2–November 83% ▲ 2
Polymarket $7.9K 24h · $223K vol
OpenAI market share this week · OpenAI market share - Nov 2, 2026
Above 16.7%>99% —
Above 17.7%>99% —
Above 18.2%96% ▲ 10
Kalshi $7.4K 24h · $28.4K vol
#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?
Google>99% ▲ 4
OpenAI<1% —
DeepSeek<1% —
Polymarket $7.3K 24h · $15.9K vol
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
No solution by Dec 31, 202730%
Yang-Mills26% ▲ 5
Hodge Conjecture19% ▼ 1
Polymarket $7.0K 24h · $333K vol
Best AI this week · On Nov 9, 2026
Gemini>99% —
ChatGPT<1% —
Claude<1% —
Kalshi $6.4K 24h · $32.3K vol
DeepSeek market share this week · DeepSeek market share - Nov 2, 2026
Above 25.9%>99% —
Above 27.4%>99% —
Above 28.1%>99% —
Kalshi $6.3K 24h · $32.8K vol
Best AI this month · On Nov 30, 2026
Gemini77% ▲ 1
Claude22% —
ChatGPT2% ▼ 1
Kalshi $5.9K 24h · $43.5K vol
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? · Before 2027
Before September1% —
Before October1% —
Before Nov 1, 20261% —
Kalshi $5.7K 24h · $1.1M vol
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
No release by November 3078% ▲ 16
November 307% ▲ 4
November 286% ▼ 2
Polymarket $5.6K 24h · $12.6K vol
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?
OpenAI>99% ▲ 2
Google<1% —
DeepSeek<1% —
Polymarket $5.0K 24h · $12.8K vol
GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?
November 1244% ▲ 10
November 1613% ▲ 7
No release by November 3010% ▼ 5
Polymarket $4.9K 24h · $109K vol
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?
December 3141% ▼ 55
November 3028% ▼ 18
Polymarket $4.8K 24h · $47.6K vol
Anthropic share of requests on Nov 8, 2026 (Vercel) · Nov 8, 2026
Above 6.0%99% ▲ 99
Above 6.4%19% ▲ 19
Above 7.0%87% ▲ 40
Kalshi $4.7K 24h · $4.9K vol
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Earbuds/Headphones12% ▲ 1
Clip-on device for clothing8% ▼ 0
Necklace2%
Polymarket $4.6K 24h · $478K vol
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
November 1037% ▲ 8
November 1826% ▼ 3
No release by November 3015%
Polymarket $4.3K 24h · $37.4K vol
Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Anthropic89% ▼ 3
Microsoft24% ▼ 5
Perplexity47% ▲ 23
Polymarket $3.8K 24h · $73.1K vol
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut?
1430+81%
1440+74% ▼ 0
1450+62% ▼ 3
Polymarket $3.8K 24h · $93.6K vol
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202765% ▼ 0
June 30, 202716% ▼ 1
September 30, 202749% ▲ 13
Polymarket $3.6K 24h · $262K vol
How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
425k to 450k25% ▲ 13
450k to 475k21% ▲ 7
475k to 500k18% ▲ 5
Polymarket $3.6K 24h · $19.7K vol
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
June 30, 2027?87%
March 31, 202779% ▼ 2
Polymarket $3.5K 24h · $111K vol
When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
November 9–November 1552% ▼ 6
November 16–November 2216% ▲ 2
November 23–November 299% —
Polymarket $3.2K 24h · $122K vol
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by...?
December 3179%
June 3092% ▲ 1
Polymarket $3.2K 24h · $28.7K vol
Measles cases in 2026? · In 2026
Above 300099% —
Above 400099% —
Above 5000>99% —
Kalshi $3.2K 24h · $897K vol
Next DeepSeek Pro released by...?
November 3014% ▼ 1
December 3139% ▲ 2
Polymarket $2.6K 24h · $43.5K vol
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?
Anthropic69% ▲ 20
Google16% ▼ 20
DeepSeek6% —
Polymarket $2.5K 24h · $35.1K vol
Google market share this week · Google market share - Nov 2, 2026
Above 10.7%>99% —
Above 12.8%99% —
Above 13.8%8% ▼ 21
Kalshi $2.5K 24h · $10.4K vol
Next Qwen Max Model (3.9+): Text Arena Debut?
1460+86%
1480+51% ▼ 22
1500+43%
Polymarket $2.3K 24h · $6.4K vol
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 20269% ▼ 0
January 31, 202718%
December 31, 202767% ▼ 2
Polymarket $2.3K 24h · $1.7M vol
Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?
Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?95% —
Polymarket $2.3K 24h · $13.2K vol
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
November 30, 202694% ▲ 2
Super Heavy booster explodes?20% ▼ 6
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?76%
Polymarket $2.3K 24h · $68.6K vol
Claude 6 released by...?
March 31, 202737% ▼ 1
June 30, 202767% ▼ 5
December 31, 202791% ▲ 4
Polymarket $2.2K 24h · $48.5K vol
Anthropic share of spend on Nov 8, 2026 (Vercel) · Nov 8, 2026
Above 30.6%99% ▲ 9
Above 30.9%99% ▲ 12
Above 32.9%99% ▲ 25
Kalshi $2.1K 24h · $2.2K vol
Top 5 Most Searched Actors on Google 2026
Inde Navarrette92% ▲ 3
Tom Holland21% ▲ 1
Jaafar Jackson76%
Polymarket $2.1K 24h · $31.5K vol
Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?
50%+99% —
55%+97% ▼ 2
60%+96% —
Polymarket $2.1K 24h · $75.7K vol
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?
November 1529% ▼ 7
November 3044% ▲ 9
Polymarket $2.0K 24h · $2.4K vol
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?
December 3197% ▲ 4
November 3093% —
November 2087% ▲ 2
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $24.2K vol
Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · Before Jan 1, 2027
Washington, DC4% —
London, UK3% —
San Diego, CA99% —
Kalshi $1.9K 24h · $272K vol
Hy4: Text Arena Debut?
1440+78%
1460+46% ▲ 8
1480+19%
Polymarket $1.9K 24h · $6.6K vol
What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote? · Jensen Huang - NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026
Event does not qualify2% —
Physical AI70% —
Cosmos85% —
Kalshi $1.9K 24h · $2.2K vol
SpaceX Starship 15th launch? · SpaceX Starship (15th launch)
Before Oct 16, 20261% —
Before Oct 30, 20261% —
Before Nov 13, 20261% —
Kalshi $1.8K 24h · $29.4K vol
Top 5 most searched people on Google in 2026 · Before Dec 2026
Donald Trump9% ▼ 1
Kamala Harris4% —
Volodymyr Zelenskyy4% —
Kalshi $1.7K 24h · $45.1K vol
#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Meta57% ▲ 5
Anthropic30% ▼ 2
OpenAI5% ▼ 0
Polymarket $1.7K 24h · $60.7K vol
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk96% —
Bernard Arnault<1%
Warren Buffett<1%
Polymarket $1.5K 24h · $2.0M vol
Next Qwen Max (3.9+) released on...?
November 852% ▲ 8
November 2744% ▼ 1
November 2442% ▼ 4
Polymarket $1.5K 24h · $1.6K vol
Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?
1470+38% ▼ 0
1480+14% ▼ 5
1490+10%
Polymarket $1.5K 24h · $140K vol
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026?
<354% ▲ 3
324% ▲ 1
413%
Polymarket $1.4K 24h · $10.2K vol
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?
Anthropic34% ▼ 2
Google32% ▼ 1
Meta5% ▼ 10
Polymarket $1.4K 24h · $36.4K vol
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Meta46% ▲ 13
Google24% ▲ 6
Anthropic22% ▼ 7
Polymarket $1.4K 24h · $56.1K vol
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?
Google44% ▼ 2
OpenAI24% ▲ 8
Meta16% ▼ 3
Polymarket $1.4K 24h · $30.5K vol
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
TikTok Pro - Events56% ▼ 5
Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace24% ▲ 10
Muse from Meta21% ▼ 11
Polymarket $1.3K 24h · $2.3K vol
Second-best AI Lab end of January?
Google31% ▼ 7
Anthropic28% ▼ 9
Meta14% ▼ 3
Polymarket $1.2K 24h · $15.4K vol
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?
November 3031% ▼ 0
December 3156% ▲ 10
Polymarket $1.2K 24h · $27.8K vol
#1 searched person on Google in 2026 · 2026
Lindsay Clancy34% —
Erling Haaland11% ▼ 2
Bad Bunny6% ▼ 2
Kalshi $1.1K 24h · $86.3K vol
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?2% —
Polymarket $1.1K 24h · $599K vol
How many launches will SpaceX have in November? · In Nov 2026
Above 697% ▲ 27
Above 788% ▲ 4
Above 856% ▲ 2
Kalshi $1.1K 24h · $22.8K vol
Will Claude go down on __ days in November 2026?
<555% ▲ 11
5-736% ▼ 4
8-1011% ▼ 7
Polymarket $1.1K 24h · $5.1K vol
#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
BigFuture School18% ▼ 1
Muse from Meta18% ▼ 5
TikTok Pro - Events15% ▼ 11
Polymarket $1.0K 24h · $1.3K vol
Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026
Lindsay Clancy80% ▼ 5
Erling Haaland55%
Bad Bunny52% ▲ 5
Polymarket $977 24h · $54.0K vol
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?
OpenAI51% ▲ 14
Google23% ▼ 13
Anthropic19% ▼ 3
Polymarket $917 24h · $46.0K vol
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Lindsay Clancy33% ▼ 1
Erling Haaland12% ▼ 0
Bad Bunny7%
Polymarket $913 24h · $364K vol
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?
October 312% ▼ 7
Polymarket $909 24h · $8.1K vol
Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
1440+38% ▲ 2
1450+28% ▲ 4
1460+10% ▼ 0
Polymarket $906 24h · $76.8K vol
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
Shadowrocket52% ▲ 14
Chromagraph Camera32% ▲ 12
HotSchedules3% ▼ 27
Polymarket $890 24h · $2.3K vol
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
December 31, 20263% —
December 31, 202714%
December 31, 202832% ▼ 4
Polymarket $869 24h · $32.2K vol
#1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?
Obsession41% ▼ 0
The Odyssey41%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day10% ▲ 1
Polymarket $868 24h · $286K vol
Top 5 Most Searched Movies on Google 2026
The Odyssey94%
Obsession82% ▼ 2
Spider-Man: Brand New Day65% ▲ 2
Polymarket $865 24h · $41.2K vol
#3 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
Meta43% ▲ 10
Anthropic32% ▲ 2
Google8% —
Polymarket $852 24h · $38.2K vol
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
No release by November 3039% ▲ 12
November 2029% ▼ 11
November 1423% —
Polymarket $829 24h · $13.5K vol
GTA VI · In-game radio artist(s) at launch · GTA VI
Taylor Swift16% —
The Weeknd85% —
Kendrick Lamar31% —
Kalshi $818 24h · $11.1K vol
Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch · At launch
Blinding Lights50% ▲ 1
Shape of You11% —
As It Was12% —
Kalshi $759 24h · $31.1K vol
Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
XO Tour Llif38% ▼ 4
Sicko Mode31% ▲ 3
Bad and Boujee31%
Polymarket $743 24h · $40.9K vol
GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
55%+94%
60%+91%
65%+46% ▼ 1
Polymarket $727 24h · $136K vol
Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by...?
December 31, 20266% ▼ 1
April 30, 202722% ▼ 9
Polymarket $709 24h · $5.3K vol
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of January?
OpenAI33% ▼ 0
Anthropic24% ▼ 4
Google15% ▼ 1
Polymarket $703 24h · $9.3K vol
When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2? · Fable 5.2
Before Nov 16, 202665% ▲ 3
Before Dec 1, 202688% ▲ 3
Before Dec 16, 202693% ▼ 10
Kalshi $700 24h · $3.4K vol
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
Google50%
OpenAI34% ▲ 4
Anthropic5% —
Polymarket $692 24h · $37.2K vol
#2 AI Lab end of January? (Style Control On)
Google35% ▲ 1
Anthropic33% ▼ 0
Meta19% ▼ 2
Polymarket $669 24h · $15.2K vol
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+20% ▲ 9
1490+13% ▲ 2
1500+12%
Polymarket $663 24h · $366K vol
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
1500+94%
1510+83%
1520+72% ▲ 2
Polymarket $652 24h · $147K vol
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?
November 3061% ▼ 1
December 3189%
Polymarket $649 24h · $16.4K vol
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?
No release by November 3039% ▲ 1
November 1226% ▲ 4
November 239% ▲ 1
Polymarket $648 24h · $24.3K vol
Total space launches in November · in November 2026
Above 989% ▼ 8
Above 1068% ▼ 5
Above 1145% ▼ 14
Kalshi $638 24h · $1.7K vol
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
60%+62% ▼ 4
65%+28% ▲ 1
70%+9% ▼ 1
Polymarket $608 24h · $142K vol
ChatGPT Outage by...?
November 1557% ▼ 0
November 3081% ▲ 25
Polymarket $553 24h · $2.3K vol
#1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?
Inde Navarrette68% ▼ 2
Jaafar Jackson15% ▼ 1
Tom Holland5% —
Polymarket $531 24h · $137K vol
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?
December 3171% ▼ 6
January 3182% ▲ 1
Polymarket $522 24h · $5.7K vol
How many Codex resets week of November 2?
148% ▲ 1
047% ▲ 16
4+23% ▼ 10
Polymarket $515 24h · $2.0K vol
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
Chromagraph Camera42% ▲ 11
Shadowrocket30% ▲ 6
HotSchedules28% ▼ 19
Polymarket $504 24h · $541 vol
Next Gemini Argon released by...?
December 3113% ▼ 5
January 3113% ▼ 8
Polymarket $472 24h · $6.9K vol
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15977% ▼ 1
120-13920% ▲ 1
180-1995% —
Polymarket $463 24h · $346K vol
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
November 305% ▼ 3
December 3115% ▲ 6
Polymarket $442 24h · $1.7M vol
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?19% ▼ 2
Polymarket $434 24h · $73.2K vol
Third-best AI Lab end of January?
Meta40% ▲ 1
Anthropic19% ▼ 0
Google14% ▲ 1
Polymarket $396 24h · $21.1K vol
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? · Before 2027
Before 20278% ▼ 1
Kalshi $390 24h · $11.5K vol
Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows on Google 2026
Euphoria68% ▲ 1
Stranger Things36%
The Boys33% ▼ 22
Polymarket $377 24h · $40.9K vol
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...?
November 3082%
December 3198% ▲ 1
November 1567% ▲ 1
Polymarket $376 24h · $18.4K vol
Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in the US 2026
Lindsay Clancy84% ▲ 3
Bad Bunny28% ▲ 5
Alysa Liu28% ▲ 2
Polymarket $359 24h · $37.6K vol
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
40%+14% —
45%+14% ▲ 1
50%+15% ▼ 1
Polymarket $357 24h · $129K vol
#2 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
Anthropic38% ▼ 1
Google28% ▼ 1
Meta28% ▲ 10
Polymarket $347 24h · $29.2K vol
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+45% ▼ 21
50%+32% ▼ 7
55%+20% ▲ 1
Polymarket $318 24h · $178K vol
GTA VI: PS5 Launch Price
$60+>99% —
$70+>99% —
$80+2% ▼ 1
Polymarket $316 24h · $94.3K vol
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?
November 3070% ▲ 4
Polymarket $315 24h · $10.9K vol
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026? · In 2026
Above 397% ▼ 3
Above 427% —
Above 53% —
Kalshi $292 24h · $5.5K vol
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
December 31, 20264% —
December 31, 202763% ▲ 4
Polymarket $287 24h · $93.9K vol
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?
OpenAI59% ▲ 2
Anthropic20% ▼ 1
Google15% ▼ 1
Polymarket $274 24h · $25.2K vol
Third-best AI Lab end of December?
Meta50% ▼ 5
Anthropic11% ▼ 1
Alibaba10% —
Polymarket $258 24h · $45.6K vol
Best AI model on November 9?
Other97% —
gemini-4-argon-high1% —
claude-opus-5.5-high1% —
Polymarket $257 24h · $12.0K vol
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+13% ▲ 3
55%+9% ▼ 1
60%+8% ▲ 1
Polymarket $243 24h · $138K vol
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? · Before Dec 31, 2026
At least 50%99% —
At least 55%99% —
At least 60%57% ▼ 5
Kalshi $236 24h · $30.9K vol
Third-best AI Lab end of November?
Meta69% ▼ 8
Moonshot5% —
Alibaba5% ▼ 1
Polymarket $234 24h · $45.5K vol
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of December?
OpenAI37%
Google27% ▲ 4
Anthropic26% ▲ 1
Polymarket $230 24h · $25.2K vol
Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year? · Before January 1, 2027
Before November 1, 20261% —
Before December 1, 20264% ▲ 1
Before January 1, 20279% ▲ 1
Kalshi $227 24h · $6.0K vol
Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
Baltimore, MD4% —
Boston, MA2%
Charlotte, NC4% —
Polymarket $220 24h · $103K vol
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Lindsay Clancy38% ▼ 2
Nicolás Maduro15% ▲ 2
Nancy Guthrie9%
Polymarket $214 24h · $227K vol
SSI public model released by…?
November 30<1% —
December 3110% ▲ 5
Polymarket $214 24h · $142K vol
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 202612% ▼ 1
December 31, 202768%
Polymarket $201 24h · $543K vol
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
50%+>99% —
55%+96% ▲ 1
60%+48% ▲ 2
Polymarket $199 24h · $46.2K vol
When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin? · COMP360 psilocybin - NDA
before September3% —
before October2% —
before November1% —
Kalshi $192 24h · $9.5K vol
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
Top 128% ▼ 1
Top 383% ▼ 0
Top 588%
Polymarket $190 24h · $33.5K vol
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
087% ▲ 1
110% ▲ 1
22%
Polymarket $186 24h · $477K vol
Number of US data centers in 2026? · 2026
At least 4,80099% —
At least 4,90099% —
At least 5,00099% —
Kalshi $180 24h · $24.7K vol
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?29% ▼ 5
Polymarket $172 24h · $124K vol
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028? · Before 2028
Before 202869% —
Kalshi $154 24h · $50.8K vol
Top 5 Most Searched Athletes on Google 2026
Erling Braut Haaland65% ▲ 1
Alysa Liu49% ▲ 4
Anthony Joshua8%
Polymarket $150 24h · $66.3K vol
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? · In 2026
Above 12099% —
Above 14066% —
Above 1455% —
Kalshi $141 24h · $131K vol
Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on...?
November 2843% —
No release by November 3043% ▼ 1
November 1736% ▼ 2
Polymarket $140 24h · $13.6K vol
Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes: #1 search · Before Jan 2027
Erling Haaland52% ▼ 6
Lionel Messi8% ▲ 4
Jalen Brunson4% —
Kalshi $131 24h · $7.7K vol
How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? · 2026
Above 019% —
Above 112% ▲ 1
Above 26% ▲ 1
Kalshi $130 24h · $16.3K vol
When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? · In 2025
Before 20272% —
Before 20286% ▼ 2
Before 202915% ▼ 3
Kalshi $125 24h · $29.7K vol
AI data center in space by...?
December 31, 20261%
December 31, 202717%
Polymarket $119 24h · $79.5K vol
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?
90%5% —
85%9% ▼ 6
80%26% ▼ 1
Polymarket $116 24h · $53.3K vol
Kimi K4 released by…?
December 31, 202612% ▼ 1
March 31, 202728% ▲ 2
Polymarket $116 24h · $55.2K vol
Top 5 Most Searched Passings on Google in the US 2026
Dolly Parton82%
Oliver Tree63% ▼ 2
Kyle Busch37% ▲ 1
Polymarket $106 24h · $18.9K vol
When will OpenAI achieve AGI? · AGI
Before 20276% ▼ 3
Before 202857% ▼ 1
Before 203067% —
Kalshi $99 24h · $340K vol
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Before 2027
Gemini38% ▼ 1
Claude18% ▼ 3
ChatGPT3% —
Kalshi $99 24h · $39.9K vol
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? · Before 2027
Any psychedelic substance for medical use18% ▲ 7
Kalshi $97 24h · $76.3K vol
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? · Before 2031
United States58% ▼ 1
Russia2% —
India1% —
Kalshi $93 24h · $73.7K vol
#3 AI Lab end of January? (Style Control On)
Meta29% ▲ 1
Anthropic17%
Google17% ▼ 4
Polymarket $93 24h · $14.0K vol
US test scores in Math in 2026? · In 2026
No significant difference44% —
Significant decrease32% —
Significant increase23% —
Kalshi $88 24h · $22.8K vol
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?
November 3034% ▲ 8
November 1549% ▲ 21
Polymarket $86 24h · $12.8K vol
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? · Before 2030
Before 203070% ▲ 1
Kalshi $78 24h · $69.1K vol
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of December?
Google33% ▼ 7
OpenAI24% ▼ 0
Meta17% ▲ 1
Polymarket $75 24h · $30.8K vol
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?3% ▼ 1
Polymarket $75 24h · $47.1K vol
NASA lands on the moon? · Moon landing
Before 2027<1% —
Before 20283% —
Before 202930% ▼ 3
Kalshi $74 24h · $23.7K vol
Will the FDA approve retatrutide? · retatrutide (LY3437943)
Before Jan 1, 20272% —
Before Jul 1, 202721% —
Before Jan 1, 202856% —
Kalshi $74 24h · $10.7K vol
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
12-1571% ▲ 4
16-1918% —
20-235% ▲ 1
Polymarket $70 24h · $231K vol
Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by...?
December 3133% ▲ 20
January 3136% ▲ 5
Polymarket $70 24h · $5.2K vol
Second-best AI Lab end of November?
Anthropic61% ▼ 3
Google20% ▼ 4
Meta11% ▲ 2
Polymarket $61 24h · $40.5K vol
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
December 31, 202611%
Polymarket $61 24h · $23.6K vol
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
158066% ▲ 4
160011% —
Polymarket $60 24h · $257K vol
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 202610% ▼ 1
December 31, 202727%
Polymarket $60 24h · $85.2K vol
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
December 312% —
Polymarket $59 24h · $157K vol
Second-best AI Lab end of December?
Anthropic38% ▼ 5
Google27% ▲ 1
Meta14% ▲ 3
Polymarket $55 24h · $33.8K vol
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch? · Before 2026
Before September1% —
Before October1% —
Before November1% —
Kalshi $53 24h · $8.9K vol
When will Anthropic release Mythos? · Mythos
Before Oct 1, 20262% —
Before Nov 1, 20262% —
Before Dec 1, 20263% —
Kalshi $51 24h · $30.9K vol
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?
June 30, 202721%
December 31, 202753%
Polymarket $50 24h · $46.1K vol
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+78%
60%+24% ▼ 7
65%+5% —
Polymarket $50 24h · $153K vol
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?
Meta33% ▲ 4
Alibaba32% ▲ 11
Google16% ▼ 1
Polymarket $49 24h · $34.6K vol
Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1510+82% ▼ 4
1520+48% ▼ 4
1530+32%
Polymarket $48 24h · $14.5K vol
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?
Alibaba49% ▼ 4
Meta42% ▲ 16
OpenAI40% ▼ 2
Polymarket $40 24h · $20.6K vol
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026? · Before 2027
United States5% ▲ 2
China5% —
India8% —
Kalshi $39 24h · $124K vol
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026? · In 2026
461% —
530% —
34% ▲ 1
Kalshi $39 24h · $15.5K vol
Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
60%+49% ▼ 11
65%+11% ▼ 0
70%+<1% ▼ 2
Polymarket $38 24h · $144K vol
Base iPhone 18 released by...?
February 28, 202714% ▼ 0
March 31, 202780%
April 30, 202790% ▲ 2
Polymarket $34 24h · $5.1K vol
SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
December 31, 202618% ▼ 4
June 30, 202790% —
Polymarket $32 24h · $12.6K vol
Tesla Optimus released this year? · Before 2027
Before 20274% ▼ 1
Kalshi $30 24h · $17.0K vol
AI capability growth this year? · Before 2027
At least 1520 score99% —
At least 1530 score99% —
At least 1540 score98% —
Kalshi $28 24h · $360K vol
How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? · 2026
Above 7k88% ▼ 5
Above 8k78% —
Above 9k63% —
Kalshi $27 24h · $8.6K vol
US test scores in Reading in 2026? · In 2026
No significant difference45% —
Significant decrease31% ▼ 2
Significant increase25% —
Kalshi $25 24h · $27.5K vol
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? · Copyright infringement
New York Times wins50% ▲ 7
Kalshi $21 24h · $31.5K vol
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? · In 2026
Before 20273% ▲ 1
Kalshi $21 24h · $5.5K vol
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? · Large meteor strike
Before 203046% ▼ 1
Kalshi $21 24h · $74.2K vol
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? · Product feature rollout
Before Oct 1, 202618% —
Before Nov 1, 20261% —
Before Dec 1, 20269% ▲ 2
Kalshi $20 24h · $34.9K vol
When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida? · In 2026
Before Oct 1, 20261% —
Before 202719% ▲ 2
Kalshi $19 24h · $9.5K vol
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? · Before 2050
Before 205024% ▼ 8
Kalshi $19 24h · $6.8K vol
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
OpenAI44% ▼ 0
Google33% ▲ 3
Anthropic19% ▼ 3
Polymarket $17 24h · $38.2K vol
Tesla Roadster delivered by...?
December 31, 20263% —
December 31, 20279%
Polymarket $15 24h · $9.8K vol
GPT-7 released by...?
June 30, 202751% ▼ 0
December 31, 202787%
Polymarket $14 24h · $26.1K vol
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Before 2027
Phone6% —
Tablet3% —
Computer4% —
Kalshi $13 24h · $11.4K vol
Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?
Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?31%
Polymarket $10 24h · $28.3K vol
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? · Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 202714% ▲ 3
Before Jan 1, 202865% —
Kalshi $9 24h · $17.3K vol
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by...?
November 3069% ▲ 13
December 3177% ▲ 1
November 1545% ▲ 4
Polymarket $9 24h · $10.3K vol
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...?
December 315%
June 3026%
Polymarket $8 24h · $42.5K vol
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? · Before 2027
Grants license3% —
Kalshi $7 24h · $21.3K vol
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? · Before 2099
Mars11% ▼ 1
Kalshi $6 24h · $13.3K vol
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? · Before 2028
Before 202856% ▲ 5
Kalshi $5 24h · $5.2K vol
Human moon landing in 2026?
Human moon landing in 2026?<1% —
Polymarket $5 24h · $2.0M vol
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?>99%
Polymarket $5 24h · $365K vol
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? · 2026
Above 090% —
Above 196% —
Above 286% —
Kalshi $3 24h · $10.6K vol
How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? · 2026
Above 285k99% —
Above 300k99% —
Above 325k99% —
Kalshi $3 24h · $21.5K vol
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Dec 31, 2026? · 05/26/26
Above $7.3799% —
Above $7.672% —
Above $7.9749% —
Kalshi $2 24h · $12.6K vol
#1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?
Dolly Parton60%
Oliver Tree18% ▲ 2
Hayden Panettiere17%
Polymarket $2 24h · $145K vol
Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026? · Before Jan 1, 2027
Arizona48% —
Nevada64% —
California2% —
Kalshi $1 24h · $10.7K vol
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year? · In 2026
In Dec 31, 20262% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $36.7K vol
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin? · COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression
Before Jan 1, 202715% ▲ 2
Before Mar 1, 202765% —
Before July 202787% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $15.0K vol
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<573% ▲ 1
5-622% ▼ 0
9-10<1%
Polymarket $0 24h · $534K vol
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
December 31, 202613% ▲ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $512K vol
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?8%
Polymarket $0 24h · $366K vol
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 155047% ▼ 6
↑ 16007% —
↑ 16504% —
Polymarket $0 24h · $239K vol
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
60%+36% ▲ 3
65%+20% ▲ 1
70%+8%
Polymarket $0 24h · $183K vol
Anthropic lab leak by...?
December 31, 20262% —
June 30, 20277%
Polymarket $0 24h · $165K vol
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
157514%
16007%
Polymarket $0 24h · $154K vol
#1 Searched TV Show on Google 2026?
Euphoria34% ▲ 1
Stranger Things29% —
Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story12% —
Polymarket $0 24h · $133K vol
#1 Searched Passing on Google in the US 2026?
Dolly Parton61%
Oliver Tree16%
Hayden Panettiere14%
Polymarket $0 24h · $116K vol
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+12% ▼ 2
60%+7%
65%+4% ▼ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $92.3K vol
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?7% ▼ 0
Polymarket $0 24h · $84.6K vol
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
Riemann Hypothesis7% ▲ 1
P versus NP5% ▲ 1
Yang-Mills20% ▲ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $67.3K vol
Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
Top 52%
Top 103% —
Top 2024%
Polymarket $0 24h · $61.8K vol
Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut?
50%+98% —
55%+94% —
60%+50% ▲ 3
Polymarket $0 24h · $53.8K vol
2nd richest person on December 31?
Jeff Bezos53% ▲ 13
Michael Dell40% ▼ 6
Larry Page32% ▲ 9
Polymarket $0 24h · $49.8K vol
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?5% —
Polymarket $0 24h · $41.8K vol
Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? · 2026
Above 4k98% —
Above 6k96% —
Above 8k99% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $41.4K vol
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by Dec 31, 2026? · 05/26/26
Above $5.7997% —
Above $6.0990% —
Above $6.3995% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $33.7K vol
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?19% ▼ 0
Polymarket $0 24h · $33.5K vol
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?3%
Polymarket $0 24h · $33.1K vol
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
December 3189%
November 3073%
Polymarket $0 24h · $31.3K vol
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by...?
December 316%
Polymarket $0 24h · $30.6K vol
Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?
1480+36% ▼ 6
1490+39% ▼ 1
1500+38% ▼ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $30.5K vol
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?
November 3033%
Polymarket $0 24h · $29.7K vol
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? · Before 2035
Before 203551% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $29.2K vol
Grok 5 released by...?
December 3110% ▲ 1
November 302% —
Polymarket $0 24h · $27.5K vol
#2 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Erling Haaland37% ▼ 2
Lindsay Clancy26% ▼ 3
Bad Bunny25%
Polymarket $0 24h · $27.4K vol
When will the Riemann hypothesis win the Millennium Prize? · Riemann hypothesis
Before 20282% —
Before 203033% —
Before 203247% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $19.5K vol
Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027? · Before 2027
Before 202766% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $19.4K vol
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? · Nuclear fusion achieved
Before 203030% —
Before 203547% —
Before 204052% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $18.9K vol
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? · Before 2030
Before 203017% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $16.6K vol
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score · Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
above 149015% —
above 149511% —
above 150010% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $13.9K vol
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?4% ▼ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $13.0K vol
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by...?
December 3197%
Polymarket $0 24h · $12.9K vol
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? · Before Dec 31, 2027
At least 60%96% —
At least 65%88% —
At least 70%74% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $12.3K vol
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? · Quantum computer
Before 2027<1% —
Before 203032% —
Before 203549% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $11.6K vol
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
December 31, 20268%
Polymarket $0 24h · $9.9K vol
Muse Charm released by...?
December 1571% ▲ 2
December 3187% ▼ 0
November 152% ▼ 9
Polymarket $0 24h · $9.7K vol
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?28% ▲ 3
Polymarket $0 24h · $9.1K vol
Muse on Meta glasses by...?
December 3164% ▲ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $8.5K vol
How many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027? · after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 1, 2027
Above 199% —
Above 20% —
Above 398% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $7.7K vol
Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by...?
December 3117% ▲ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $7.4K vol
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?4% ▲ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $7.3K vol
Number of data centers in Arizona this year? · December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
At least 16299% —
At least 16699% —
At least 17250% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $7.0K vol
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? · Before 2030
Before 203061% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $6.6K vol
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?
Google40%
OpenAI35%
Moonshot31% ▲ 2
Polymarket $0 24h · $6.6K vol
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD? · MDMA for PTSD
Before Jan 1, 202710% —
Before Jan 1, 202841% —
Before Jan 1, 202952% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $6.5K vol
How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026? · Before 2027
At least 2573% —
At least 3050% —
At least 4027% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $6.3K vol
How many locally acquired dengue cases will be reported in Florida in 2026? · 2026
250 or more99% —
500 or more99% —
750 or more57% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $6.0K vol
When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z? · Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema
Before July 202789% —
Before October 202792% —
Before 202891% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $5.9K vol
Grok (Web) Outage by...?
November 3051% ▼ 1
Polymarket $0 24h · $5.8K vol
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...?
December 3198% ▲ 3
Polymarket $0 24h · $5.7K vol
Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026 · On Dec 31, 2026
Meta84% —
OpenAI17% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $5.7K vol
How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? · 2026
Above 1084% —
Above 1575% —
Above 2054% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $5.5K vol
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by Dec 31, 2026? · 05/26/26
Above $3.2390% —
Above $3.3865% —
Above $3.5387% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $5.4K vol
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? · Before 2050
Before 205029% —
Kalshi $0 24h · $5.0K vol
Recently resolved
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1400+100% ▲ 6
1420+0% ▼ 81
Polymarket Resolved
Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut?
20%+100% ▲ 5
25%+100% ▲ 21
Polymarket Resolved
Gemini Carbon: Text Arena Debut?
1520+100%
1530+100%
Polymarket Resolved
Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year? · 2026
At least 18098% —
At least 18597% —
Kalshi Resolved
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
September 150%
September 300%
Polymarket Resolved
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?100%
Polymarket Resolved
When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?
October 26–November 1100% ▲ 54
Prior to October 260% —
Polymarket Resolved
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
August 310% ▼ 2
October 31100% ▲ 49
Polymarket Resolved
Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?
October 26100% ▲ 89
On or prior to October 230% ▼ 4
Polymarket Resolved
Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
October 31100% ▲ 36
November 30100% ▲ 6
Polymarket Resolved
DeepSeek market share this week · DeepSeek market share - Oct 26, 2026
Above 23.9%99% —
Above 25.1%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
Anthropic market share this week · Anthropic market share - Oct 26, 2026
Above 4.5%99% —
Above 4.9%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
OpenAI market share this week · OpenAI market share - Oct 26, 2026
Above 16.1%99% —
Above 17.3%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
How many launches will SpaceX have in October? · In Oct 2026
Above 699% —
Above 799% —
Kalshi Resolved
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?
OpenAI100% ▲ 2
DeepSeek0%
Polymarket Resolved
Best AI this week · On Nov 2, 2026
Gemini99% —
ChatGPT1% —
Kalshi Resolved
OpenAI market share this week · OpenAI market share - Oct 19, 2026
Above 14.7%99% —
Above 16.5%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
Google market share this week · Google market share - Oct 19, 2026
Above 16.6%99% —
Above 18.0%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
DeepSeek market share this week · DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026
Above 22.7%99% —
Above 23.8%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
Anthropic market share this week · Anthropic market share - Oct 19, 2026
Above 3.7%99% —
Above 4.1%99% —
Kalshi Resolved
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 1100% ▲ 1
Prior to August 310% ▼ 1
Polymarket Resolved
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
No release by October 31100% ▲ 2
On or prior to October 30% ▼ 43
Polymarket Resolved
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
5+100% ▲ 1
<10%
Polymarket Resolved
OpenAI resumes training by...?
September 300% ▼ 10
October 50% ▼ 1
Polymarket Resolved
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
Google0% ▼ 8
Alibaba0% ▼ 3
Polymarket Resolved
Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
3-6 hours100% ▲ 3
<1 hour0% ▼ 2
Polymarket Resolved
Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
5-7100% —
<50%
Polymarket Resolved
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
Google0% ▼ 0
Alibaba0% ▼ 3
Polymarket Resolved
Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by October 31100% ▲ 1
On or prior to October 10% ▼ 3
Polymarket Resolved
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
No release by October 31100% ▲ 2
On or prior to October 10% ▲ 2
Polymarket Resolved