Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96% | -2122 | — |
| No | 5% | +2122 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress is elected on the first ballot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. A candidate is elected when the Clerk announces that they have received a majority of the votes cast for a person by name on that ballot. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Any individual elected to be, appointed to be, or serving as Speaker pro tempore in the 120th congress will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot"?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 96%, about -2122 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 4, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.