How many nominees will the Senate confirm in the lame duck Odds · After Issuance, before Jan 3, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 96% | -2400 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 25 | 94% | -1567 | ▲ 8 |
| At least 50 | 82% | -441 | ▲ 6 |
| At least 75 | 35% | +186 | ▼ 21 |
| At least 100 | 22% | +355 | ▼ 35 |
| At least 125 | 16% | +525 | ▼ 10 |
| At least 150 | 0% | — | — |
| At least 175 | 16% | +525 | ▼ 14 |
| At least 200 | 0% | — | — |
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Resolution rules
If the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate is at least 10 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Apr 4, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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