Next French presidential election winner Odds · In 2027
Kalshi traders give Marine Le Pen a 48% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 48% | +111 | ▲ 1 |
| David Lisnard | 16% | +545 | ▼ 1 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14% | +641 | ▲ 2 |
| Édouard Philippe | 9% | +1056 | — |
| Christine Lagarde | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 5% | +2122 | — |
| François Hollande | 3% | +3900 | ▼ 1 |
| Jordan Bardella | 2% | +5305 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | 1% | +7900 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1% | +8596 | — |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | +11665 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | <1% | +11665 | — |
| Sarah Knafo | <1% | +13233 | — |
| Valérie Pécresse | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Laurent Wauquiez | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Jean Castex | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Michel Barnier | <1% | +28471 | — |
| François Bayrou | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Olivier Faure | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Manuel Bompard | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Mathilde Panot | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Xavier Bertrand | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Gérald Darmanin | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Bruno Le Maire | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Carole Delga | <1% | +66567 | — |
| François Ruffin | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
On Polymarket
A similar market trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next French presidential election winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Marine Le Pen at 48%, about +111 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists May 31, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next French presidential election winner?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.