Argentina Presidential Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Javier Milei a 45% chance (Kalshi: 47%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 45% | +125 | — | 47% |
| Axel Kicillof | 35% | +190 | — | 33% |
| Sergio Massa | 16% | +543 | — | 11% |
| Patricia Bullrich | 2% | +4778 | — | 3% |
| Myriam Bregman | 2% | +5614 | — | — |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 1% | +9424 | — | 6% |
| Daniel Hadad | <1% | +15285 | — | — |
| Mauricio Macri | <1% | +33233 | — | 3% |
| Dante Gebel | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Lionel Messi | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Juan Grabois | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Facundo Manes | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Victoria Villarruel | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Nicolás del Caño | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Máximo Kirchner | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Karina Milei | <1% | +99900 | — | — |
| Guillermo Moreno | <1% | +99900 | — | — |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | <1% | +99900 | — | — |
| Esteban Bullrich | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Juan Schiaretti | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Alberto Fernández | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Argentina Presidential Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Javier Milei at 45%, about +125 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 47%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 25, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Argentina Presidential Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.