2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 90% | -852 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 10% | +895 | — |
| Éric Zemmour | 70% | -228 | — |
| Édouard Philippe | 72% | -257 | ▼ 5 |
| David Lisnard | 86% | -614 | ▲ 4 |
| Xavier Bertrand | 7% | +1279 | — |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3% | +2930 | — |
| François Ruffin | 14% | +614 | ▼ 0 |
| Gabriel Attal | 24% | +326 | ▲ 5 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 35% | +186 | ▲ 1 |
| François Hollande | 27% | +277 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 81% | -413 | ▼ 1 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 96% | -2339 | — |
| Marine Tondelier | 23% | +344 | ▼ 2 |
| Fabien Roussel | 78% | -355 | ▲ 10 |
| Olivier Faure | 5% | +1805 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 38% | +163 | ▲ 1 |
| Ségolène Royal | 3% | +3604 | — |
| François Asselineau | 23% | +344 | ▲ 11 |
| Clémentine Autain | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 64% | -178 | ▲ 1 |
| Michel Barnier | 6% | +1581 | — |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4% | +2464 | — |
| François Bayrou | 5% | +1823 | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | 4% | +2226 | — |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Jean Castex | 5% | +1941 | — |
| Gérald Darmanin | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Carole Delga | 5% | +2028 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 4% | +2640 | ▼ 2 |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% | +1962 | — |
| Mathilde Panot | 4% | +2199 | — |
| Sarah Knafo | 18% | +471 | ▲ 1 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 6% | +1654 | — |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 93% | -1233 | ▲ 7 |
| Delphine Batho | 2% | +4778 | — |
| Jérôme Guedj | 4% | +2281 | — |
| Karim Bouamrane | 5% | +2074 | — |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 6% | +1639 | — |
Showing the top 40 of 46 outcomes.
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Price history
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Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jul 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.