Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election Odds
Polymarket traders give Democratic a 68% chance (Kalshi: 67%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 68% | -208 | — | 67% |
| Republican | 33% | +208 | — | 35% |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Democratic at 68%, about -208 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 67%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.