Which Senate races will be within 5% Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | <1% | +16567 | — |
| Maine | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Michigan | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Iowa | 98% | -4445 | ▼ 1 |
| Alaska | 99% | -9424 | — |
| Ohio (Special) | 47% | +113 | ▼ 0 |
| New Hampshire | <1% | +11665 | — |
| Nebraska | 22% | +363 | — |
| Virginia | 1% | +9424 | ▼ 14 |
| New Mexico | <1% | +14186 | — |
| Colorado | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Florida (Special) | 97% | -3409 | ▼ 2 |
| North Carolina | <1% | +11665 | — |
| Georgia | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Minnesota | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Montana | 1% | +7043 | ▲ 1 |
| South Carolina | >99% | -13233 | — |
| Kansas | 5% | +1880 | ▲ 1 |
| Mississippi | >99% | -22122 | — |
| Louisiana | >99% | -19900 | — |
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Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which Senate races will be within 5%?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.