French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place Odds
Polymarket traders give Raphaël Glucksmann a 17% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 17% | +488 | ▼ 9 |
| Gabriel Attal | 17% | +506 | — |
| François Hollande | 16% | +525 | ▼ 10 |
| Édouard Philippe | 16% | +545 | ▼ 21 |
| David Lisnard | 13% | +700 | ▼ 12 |
| Christine Lagarde | 10% | +900 | ▼ 14 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 18 |
| François Ruffin | 9% | +1076 | ▼ 15 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 6% | +1553 | ▼ 33 |
| Jordan Bardella | 6% | +1553 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 1 |
| Sarah Knafo | 5% | +1920 | ▼ 1 |
| Marine Tondelier | 3% | +3746 | ▼ 4 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 2% | +4344 | ▼ 14 |
| Éric Zemmour | 2% | +4778 | ▼ 38 |
| Marine Le Pen | 2% | +5782 | ▼ 25 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Raphaël Glucksmann at 17%, about +488 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 18, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.