2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Odds
Polymarket traders give Democrats 14-16% a 80% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 14-16% | 80% | -396 | ▼ 5 |
| Democrats 12-14% | 19% | +417 | ▲ 9 |
| Democrats 16%+ | 1% | +8991 | ▼ 1 |
| Democrats 10-12% | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Democrats 8-10% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats 6-8% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats 4-6% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats 2-4% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats 0-2% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Republicans 0-2% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Republicans 2-4% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Republicans 4-6% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Republicans 6%+ | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Democrats 14-16% at 80%, about -396 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.