Presidential Election Winner 2028 Odds
Polymarket traders give JD Vance a 18% chance (Kalshi: 14%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 18% | +467 | ▼ 1 | 14% |
| Jon Ossoff | 18% | +470 | ▼ 0 | 23% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% | +730 | — | 10% |
| Marco Rubio | 10% | +947 | — | 11% |
| Gavin Newsom | 7% | +1299 | — | 10% |
| Ron DeSantis | 6% | +1686 | — | 7% |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | +2717 | — | 4% |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | +3604 | — | 2% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2% | +3982 | — | 3% |
| Thomas Massie | 2% | +5961 | — | <1% |
| Andy Beshear | 2% | +6567 | — | 3% |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | +6797 | — | 1% |
| Donald Trump | 1% | +7307 | — | — |
| Raphael Warnock | 1% | +8233 | — | 2% |
| Wes Moore | 1% | +9424 | — | 2% |
| James Talarico | 1% | +9424 | ▼ 1 | 3% |
| Mark Kelly | <1% | +10426 | — | 2% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | <1% | +11665 | — | — |
| Ro Khanna | <1% | +13233 | — | <1% |
| JB Pritzker | <1% | +16567 | — | 2% |
| Ivanka Trump | <1% | +18082 | — | <1% |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | +22122 | — | <1% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | <1% | +22122 | — | — |
| Ted Cruz | <1% | +22122 | — | <1% |
| Rahm Emanuel | <1% | +22122 | — | 1% |
| Nikki Haley | <1% | +24900 | — | <1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | <1% | +28471 | — | <1% |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | +39900 | — | <1% |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Elon Musk | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Jamie Dimon | <1% | +66567 | — | <1% |
| Stephen Smith | <1% | +99900 | — | — |
| Tim Walz | <1% | +199900 | — | <1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | +199900 | — | <1% |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | +199900 | — | <1% |
| LeBron James | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Kim Kardashian | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Zohran Mamdani | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Eric Trump | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
Showing the top 40 of 55 outcomes.
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Presidential Election Winner 2028?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price JD Vance at 18%, about +467 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 14%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Presidential Election Winner 2028?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.