Alaska Senate margin of victory Odds · On November 3, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, 0.5+ pts | 0% | — | — |
| Mary Peltola, 1+ pts | 76% | -317 | — |
| Mary Peltola, 1.5+ pts | 75% | -292 | — |
| Mary Peltola, 2+ pts | 80% | -388 | ▲ 2 |
| Mary Peltola, 2.5+ pts | 81% | -426 | — |
| Mary Peltola, 3+ pts | 62% | -163 | ▼ 21 |
| Mary Peltola, 3.5+ pts | 87% | -669 | ▲ 87 |
| Mary Peltola, 4+ pts | 39% | +156 | ▲ 5 |
| Mary Peltola, 4.5+ pts | 44% | +127 | ▲ 13 |
| Mary Peltola, 5+ pts | 49% | +104 | ▲ 16 |
| Mary Peltola, 6+ pts | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 10 |
| Mary Peltola, 8+ pts | 5% | +1941 | — |
| Mary Peltola, 10+ pts | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Resolution rules
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 0.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Alaska Senate margin of victory?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.