2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Odds · At the release of the national House popular vote data
Kalshi traders give Democrats, 14 to 16% a 79% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 14 to 16% | 79% | -365 | ▼ 6 |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 22% | +365 | ▲ 10 |
| Democrats, 16% and above | 2% | +4551 | ▼ 1 |
| Republicans win | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Democrats, 14 to 16% at 79%, about -365 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.