Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government Odds
Polymarket traders give Benjamin Netanyahu a 57% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 57% | -135 | ▲ 18 |
| No second mandate | 39% | +156 | — |
| Yair Golan | 1% | +9424 | ▼ 5 |
| Naftali Bennett | <1% | +11011 | ▼ 3 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | <1% | +18082 | ▼ 3 |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 1 |
| Yair Lapid | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 4 |
| Gadi Eizenkot | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 7 |
| Benny Gantz | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 4 |
| Yossi Cohen | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 4 |
| Gideon Sa’ar | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 2 |
| Yariv Levin | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 2 |
| Moshe Feiglin | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 4 |
| Ayelet Shaked | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 2 |
| Yoaz Hendel | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 2 |
| Israel Katz | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 3 |
| Ofer Winter | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 2 |
| Eli Cohen | <1% | +66567 | ▼ 4 |
| Nir Barkat | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 3 |
| Amir Ohana | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 3 |
| Gilad Erdan | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 3 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Legislative elections were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the second individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. Extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked with forming a government again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count; only a mandate given to a different individual will count as the second mandate. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. If the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Benjamin Netanyahu at 57%, about -135 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.