National Guard deployed to election sites by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| November 30 | 2% | +5456 | ▼ 3 |
| December 31 | 2% | +5028 | ▼ 4 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if federalized National Guard personnel are deployed to a polling place or a vote-counting or canvassing center in the United States between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying deployment requires National Guard personnel who have been called into federal service or placed under orders pursuant to Title 10 of the U.S. Code (including under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 or the Insurrection Act, 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255) to be assigned to, and physically present at, a polling place, early voting site, or facility where ballots are counted, tabulated, or canvassed (including an election office conducting a count, recount, or canvass) in connection with the November 3, 2026 U.S. elections or any count, recount, or canvass of those elections. National Guard personnel serving in State Active Duty or Title 32 status, including routine election support under a governor's authority (e.g. cybersecurity, logistics, or poll worker assistance), will not qualify. Deployments of the District of Columbia National Guard or of Title 32 personnel in Washington, D.C. will likewise not qualify unless those personnel are called into federal service under Title 10. Incidental presence of Guard personnel near a polling place or counting facility in the course of a deployment not assigned to that location will not qualify. Statements, announcements, threats, or orders to deploy will not qualify unless federalized National Guard personnel are physically deployed to a qualifying location. Deployments of active-duty military personnel other than the National Guard, or of federal law enforcement personnel, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official U.S. government statements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on National Guard deployed to election sites by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.