Next French Presidential Election Odds
Polymarket traders give Marine Le Pen a 45% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 45% | +122 | — |
| David Lisnard | 15% | +573 | — |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14% | +641 | ▲ 1 |
| Édouard Philippe | 10% | +953 | ▼ 1 |
| Christine Lagarde | 7% | +1242 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 3% | +3536 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 2% | +4778 | — |
| François Hollande | 2% | +4778 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | <1% | +13233 | — |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Sarah Knafo | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | <1% | +66567 | — |
| François Baroin | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Xavier Bertrand | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Laurent Wauquiez | <1% | +199900 | — |
| François Ruffin | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Marine Tondelier | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Fabien Roussel | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Olivier Faure | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ségolène Royal | <1% | +199900 | — |
| François Asselineau | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Clémentine Autain | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Michel Barnier | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Valérie Pécresse | <1% | +199900 | — |
| François Bayrou | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Jean Castex | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Gérald Darmanin | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Carole Delga | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Manuel Bompard | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mathilde Panot | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Juan Branco | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Clémence Guetté | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Karim Bouamrane | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Lucie Castets | <1% | +199900 | — |
Showing the top 40 of 45 outcomes.
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Price history
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next French Presidential Election?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Marine Le Pen at 45%, about +122 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 19, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next French Presidential Election?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.