NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory Odds
Polymarket traders give Labour 0-5% a 93% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour 0-5% | 93% | -1404 | ▼ 3 |
| National 0-5% | 6% | +1609 | ▲ 1 |
| Labour 15%+ | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Labour 10-15% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Labour 5-10% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| National 5-10% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| National 10%+ | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Another Party Wins | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Labour 0-5% at 93%, about -1404 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.