Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets) Odds
Polymarket traders give 175-179 a 74% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175-179 | 74% | -278 | ▲ 4 |
| 170-174 | 26% | +288 | ▼ 5 |
| Below 170 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 180-184 | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 175-179 at 74%, about -278 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.