Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win Odds · On Oct 25, 2026
This market has resolved: Tocantins. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amapá | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 64 |
| Amazonas | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 20 |
| Minas Gerais | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 90 |
| Pará | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 7 |
| Tocantins ✓ | 99% | -9900 | ▲ 1 |
| Roraima ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Alagoas | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 1 |
Price history
Resolution rules
If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Amapá in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 25, 2027 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.