New Zealand Prime Minister after the election Odds · Before Nov 7, 2027
Kalshi traders give Christopher Luxon a 81% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 81% | -426 | ▲ 18 |
| Chris Hipkins | 16% | +545 | ▼ 24 |
| David Seymour | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Winston Peters | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Marama Davidson | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Rawiri Waititi | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Qiulae Wong | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Nicola Willis | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Chris Bishop | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Erica Stanford | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Simeon Brown | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Mark Mitchell | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Christopher Luxon at 81%, about -426 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 7, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.