Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 57% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43% | +133 | ▲ 11 |
| No | 57% | -133 | ▼ 10 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31"?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 57%, about -133 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.