New Zealand legislative election winner Odds
Polymarket traders give National Party a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 98% | -4551 | — |
| Labour Party | 2% | +4662 | — |
| Green Party | <1% | +199900 | — |
| ACT New Zealand | <1% | +199900 | — |
| New Zealand First Party | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Te Pāti Māori | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in New Zealand legislative election winner?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price National Party at 98%, about -4551 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on New Zealand legislative election winner?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.