Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030 Odds · Large meteor strike
Kalshi traders give No a 54% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | +115 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 54% | -115 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If a major meteor (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) hits Earth before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 54%, about -115 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2030 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.