When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released Odds
This market has resolved: No release by November 1. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 1 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| Prior to August 31 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| August 31–September 6 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| September 7–September 13 | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
| September 14–September 20 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| September 21–September 27 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| September 28–October 4 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| October 5–October 11 | 0% | — | — |
| October 12–October 18 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| October 19–October 25 | 0% | — | — |
| October 26–November 1 | 0% | — | ▼ 0 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 1, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.