Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026 Odds · On Dec 31, 2026
Kalshi traders give Meta a 84% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 84% | -506 | — |
| OpenAI | 17% | +488 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Meta's top model has a higher Arena Score than OpenAI's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Meta at 84%, about -506 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.