Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on... Odds
Polymarket traders give No release by November 30 a 78% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 30 | 78% | -344 | ▲ 16 |
| November 28 | 7% | +1438 | ▼ 1 |
| November 30 | 6% | +1513 | ▲ 3 |
| November 20 | 4% | +2253 | ▼ 10 |
| November 25 | 3% | +2799 | ▼ 18 |
| November 29 | 3% | +2977 | — |
| November 10 | 3% | +3075 | ▼ 1 |
| November 24 | 3% | +3179 | — |
| November 16 | 3% | +3290 | ▼ 1 |
| November 27 | 3% | +3536 | ▼ 1 |
| November 21 | 3% | +3604 | ▼ 4 |
| November 13 | 3% | +3746 | ▼ 1 |
| November 12 | 2% | +4551 | ▼ 1 |
| November 9 | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 13 |
| November 18 | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 1 |
| November 22 | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 1 |
| November 14 | 2% | +5163 | ▼ 1 |
| November 23 | 2% | +5163 | ▼ 4 |
| November 11 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 17 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 19 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 26 | <1% | +16567 | ▼ 14 |
| November 15 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 8 | <1% | +24900 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No release by November 30 at 78%, about -344 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.