How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give <5 a 73% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 73% | -270 | ▲ 1 |
| 5-6 | 22% | +365 | ▼ 0 |
| 9-10 | <1% | +15285 | — |
| 7-8 | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 11-12 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 13-14 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 15-16 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| >16 | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price <5 at 73%, about -270 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.