Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by... Odds
This market has resolved: October 31. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 | 0% | — | — |
| September 30 | 0% | — | — |
| September 9 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| September 10 | 0% | — | — |
| October 31 ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| December 31 ✓ | 100% | — | — |
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.