Measles cases in 2026 Odds · In 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3000 ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 4000 ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 5000 | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Above 6000 | 95% | -1900 | ▲ 1 |
| Above 7000 | 78% | -355 | ▲ 1 |
| Above 8000 | 38% | +163 | ▲ 4 |
| Above 9000 | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Above 10000 | 6% | +1718 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Measles cases in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.